[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Fri Dec 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone
and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N34W
to 0N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between
15W-31W and N of 0N E of the Prime Meridian.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extending from the SE CONUS dominates the Gulf waters
and provides gentle to moderate southerly return flow E of 90W
while a tighter pressure gradient in the western basin supports
moderate to strong southerlies. This tighter gradient is
associated with the next cold front that will enter the NW Gulf
waters tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico Saturday morning, and from the western Florida
Panhandle to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche by Saturday
night. Reinforcing stronger high pressure will push the front to
a position from Tampa, Florida to 23N94W to the central Bay of
Campeche by Sunday night. Fresh to near gale-force northerly
winds and building seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of
the front on Saturday, with winds diminishing to 10-15 kt by
Sunday afternoon. The front is then forecast to extend from south
Florida to near 22N96W to 22N96W to 18N94W on Monday while
weakening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds
across the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh NE winds
continue across the Windward Passage. Patches of low level
clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow are producing isolated to
scattered passing showers over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
eastern Caribbean. High pressure N of the region will maintain
strong trade winds over the central and southwest Caribbean, with
near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia each night during
the weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected through the
Windward Passage as well.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-topped trade wind showers are across the island and are
forecast through early Sunday morning. High pressure over the
west Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds
across the Windward Passage during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a weak 1016 mb low pressure located
near 32N56W to 27N72W where it stalls NW to 30N76W. The cold
front will drift south and dissipate rapidly through early Sat.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds in the
wake of the front but N of 29N between 63W and 70W. An area of
showers is ahead of the front N of 27N between 49W and 53W. The
remainder of the western Atlantic is under the influence of a
ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure located over the
Carolinas. E of the front, a 1044 mb high pressure centered NE of
the Azores extends a ridge across most of the E and central
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this strong high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of 11N between the coast of
Africa and 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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