[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from 06N11W to
04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-10N between 08W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to 28N94W to
26N97W. This front is expected to become a warm front and move
northward overnight. A surface trough extends across the Bay of
Campeche from 24N94W to 21N96W. A surface ridge along 24N extends
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered in the west Atlantic. Light to gentle winds dominate the
basin, except north of 28N and east of 90W where moderate to
fresh SW winds are noted in scatterometer data. The next cold
front is forecast to come off the coast of Texas early Saturday
morning, extending from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico
by early Sunday and from south Florida to Veracruz, Mexico on Monday
morning. Fresh to near-gale force northerly winds will follow the
front starting on Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper level ridging dominates the Caribbean waters
along with very dry air aloft supporting fair weather. A surface
ridge anchored over the west Atlantic continues to tighten the
pressure gradient over the central Caribbean, thus resulting in
fresh to strong winds between 68W and 80W and strong to near
gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia. Little change is
expected in the upper-to mid-level weather pattern through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

As previously discussed, broad mid to upper-level anticyclonic
wind flow and dry upper-to mid-level air dominate the entire
Caribbean Sea supporting mostly stable conditions. However, low-
topped trade wind showers are forecast to move over the island on
Friday and Saturday evenings.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface troughs extend across the central portion of the
basin. The first was analyzed from 31N52W to 27N64W with isolated
showers. The second one is from 31N40W to 26N46W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along this trough between 37W-45W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of surface
ridges, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 26N72W and a 1042 mb high
near 46N05W. A cold front associated with a surface low currently
in South Carolina, will enter the western Atlantic waters by
Thursday morning and race southeast through Friday night. A
stronger cold front will enter this same region on Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net