[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Tue Dec 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Pulsing nocturnal easterly winds to gale-force are expected again
near the coast of Colombia during the overnight tonight and early
morning hours on Tuesday, particularly from 10N to 13N between
74W and 78W. Expect sea heights to range from 10 to 14 ft. Wind
will diminish below gale-force by Tuesday afternoon, and are
expected to reach again minimal gale-force at night. Thereafter,
strong to near-gale force winds will persist in the area each
night this week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07N12W and
continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to northeast
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
about 30 nm on either side of these boundaries between 13W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northern portion of the
basin from 29N91W to 27N97W. A surface trough extends from that
point to 20N95W. Isolated showers are noted along these
boundaries. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a 1025
mb high centered over northwest Florida near 29N83W. The ridge
is forecast to persist through Tuesday night. A weak cold front
will reach the coast of Texas Wednesday, and stall across the
northern Gulf by Thursday before moving north as a warm front on
Thursday night. A stronger cold front will reach the northwest
Gulf on Friday. Fresh southerly return flow is expected across the
western Gulf ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the gale warning near the coast of Colombia during the next two
nights. The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to
strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean and across the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. An
altimeter pass indicated seas of 11 ft over the SW Caribbean in
association with the strong trades. Patches of low-level moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow are observed on visible satellite
imagery, more concentrated over the central Caribbean. Broad mid-
level anticyclonic wind flow and strong subsidence dominates the
entire Caribbean Sea with fair weather. Little change is expected
during the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad mid to upper-level high is covering the Caribbean Sea and
very dry air aloft supporting mostly stable conditions across the
island. However, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
will move across Hispaniola to produce isolated to scattered
passing showers through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough in the central Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends from 31N40W to 21N62W. The front weakens from
that point to 20N67W. Mainly low-level clouds with isolated to
scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Strong high
pressure building west of the front will prevail over the west
Atlantic through mid-week. This pattern will keep South Florida
mostly dry and warm through the weekend. East of the front, the
Azores high extends across the eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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