[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Strong surface pressure centered off the coast of South Carolina
tightens the pressure gradient in the south-central Caribbean,
thus supporting gale-force winds along the northwest portion of the
Colombian coast. These winds will pulse every night through early
next week as the ridge builds over SW N Atlc waters. Sea heights
will range from 8 to 15 feet in the area of strongest winds.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of West Africa near
09N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 05N26W to
05N40W to 01N50W. Scattered showers are from 06N to 18N between
20W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level short-wave trough extending from northern Texas SE
to a base over the NW Gulf supports a 1015 mb low over SW
Louisiana. A cold front extends from this low SW to near Tampico,
Mexico while a warm front extends E along 30N89W to 28N84W. Radar
imagery show a line of showers and tstms moving across Louisiana
and extending S into the Gulf to near 28N. Isolated showers are
also in the NE basin associated with the frontal system. Fresh to
strong winds are in the vicinity of the low due to a tight
pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the SE
CONUS. The front will weaken gradually today and transition into
a surface trough to move inland Texas early Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds will continue to pulse at night in the south-
central Caribbean as strong high pressure builds in the SW N Atlc
waters. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the basin
being supported by a broad middle to upper level high and very dry
air aloft. Little change is expected through the next 24-48
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad middle to upper level high covering the Caribbean and
very dry air aloft support very stable conditions across the
Island. Similar conditions are forecast through Monday. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds will continue in the Windward Passage through
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad middle to upper level trough over the NW Atlc supports a
cold front that extends from 30N53W SW to 25N67W to the central
Bahamas. No convection is associated with this front. Strong high
pressure starts to build west of this front and is forecast to
prevail over SW N Atlc waters through the middle of the week.
Otherwise, the Azores high continue to extend a ridge axis across
the eastern Atlc waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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