[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning Gulf of Mexico...

As of 0300 UTC a cold front extends from SW Louisiana to southern
Texas. Northerly winds behind the front will rapidly increase
from fresh to near-gale force through sunrise Friday when minimal
gale-force winds are expected to develop offshore of Mexico. Seas
will build to 8 ft in the area with the highest winds. These
conditions are forecast to diminish by sunrise on Saturday. See
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure will build north of the Caribbean by Friday
evening resulting in a tight pressure gradient in the south central
basin where trades will increase to fresh to strong. A strong
pressure gradient will continue during the weekend allowing for
the development of gale-force winds northwest of the Colombian
coast starting Friday night through early Monday. Seas will build
to 13 ft in this area. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
07N13W to 07N15W where the ITCZ continues along 04N27W to 01S46W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N-10N between 07W
and 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends from the central Atlc SW across the
Florida peninsula and into the eastern half of the Gulf where it
provides with light to gentle anticyclonic flow. Gentle to
moderate SSE flow is in the SW basin ahead of a cold front that
extends from SW Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas. Northerly
winds behind the front will rapidly increase from fresh to near-
gale force through sunrise Friday when minimal gale-force winds
are expected to develop offshore of Mexico. Looking ahead, the
cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the
northeast Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by Friday night. The front
will stall from Tampa to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday before
lifting back to the northwest through Sun. Gale-force winds are
forecast along the coast of Mexico near Tampico from Friday night
to Saturday morning. See the Special Features section for further
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture associated with the remnants of a former
stationary front support isolated showers over the NW Caribbean.
In the SW basin, a surface trough extends from 17N79W to 09N81W
supporting similar shower activity W of 80W. A nearly stationary surface
trough N of the area may support isolated to scattered showers
over NE Puerto Rico and and Dominican Republic. Middle to Upper
level ridging and dry air subsidence support stable conditions
elsewhere. Strong high pressure will build north of the Caribbean
by Friday evening resulting in a tight pressure gradient in the
south central basin where trades will increase to fresh to strong.
A strong pressure gradient will continue during the weekend
allowing for the development of gale-force winds northwest of the
Colombian coast starting Friday night through early Monday. See
the Special Features section for further details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness prevail mainly over the Dominican Republic due to the
proximity of a nearly stationary trough in the SW N Atlc extending
to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are possible mainly over higher
terrain through Friday morning. Then, moisture will diminish as
the trough continues to weaken and drift westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong surface high pressure anchored south of the Azores extends
a ridge axis into SW N Atlc waters as well as the central and
eastern Atlc. A weakness in the ridge, remnants of a former
stationary front, is analyzed as a surface trough from 30N54W SW
to the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Isolated showers are
within 120 nm either side of this boundary. A cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast early on Friday, reach from
Bermuda to south Florida Saturday, then will stall and gradually
dissipate along 25N through early next week as high pressure from
the southeast United States builds eastward across the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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