[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Fri
morning. Northerly winds will rapidly increase to fresh to near
gale force behind the front by sunrise Fri, then will increase to
minimal gale force offshore of Mexico, reaching to offshore of
Veracruz Fri night. Seas will build to 8-12 ft W of the front with
the strong to gale force winds. Gale force winds are forecast to
diminish by sunrise on Saturday. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Strong high pressure will build N of the Caribbean by Friday
evening resulting in a tight pressure gradient in the S central
Caribbean where trades will increase to fresh to strong. The
gradient will continue to strengthen through the weekend and gale
force winds are forecast to pulse NW of the Colombian coast Fri
night, Sat night, and Sun night. Seas will build to 8-14 ft in S
central portions due to the gale and surrounding winds. See
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough transitions to the intertropical convergence
zone along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 08N14W and continues to
05N25W then westward to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 20W and
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high in the south
central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W dominates the eastern half of
the basin with broad moderate anticyclonic flow across the region.
Jet dynamics aloft are supporting mid to upper level cloudiness
across the northwest Gulf, but low to middle level dry air
continues to support clear skies elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold
front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf by early Friday
morning, then reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf
to near Tampico Mexico by Fri evening, then stall from Tampa to
the Bay of Campeche on Sat before lifting back to the W and NW
through Sun. Gale force winds are forecast along the coast of
Mexico near Tampico Fri night and Sat. See special features for
further details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front reaches from eastern Cuba across
the northwest Caribbean along 20N. Ahead of the front, the
remnants of a former cold front are analyzed as a trough from
near Jamaica to central Panama. Scattered cloudiness is noted near
this features, and near the entrances to the Gulf of Venezuela,
but mostly sunny skies dominate elsewhere. No significant showers
or thunderstorms are noted. Fresh northerly winds still may be
occurring between the trough over the southwest Caribbean and the
coast of Nicaragua, but are likely diminishing. Light to moderate
trades are in the remainder central and eastern basin. Winds are
forecast to increase to 20-25 kt over the south central Caribbean
tonight, with gale conditions possible Sat night and Sun night as
high pressure builds N of area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness prevail along the north coast of Haiti due to the
proximity of a surface trough and stationary front over eastern
Cuba. Isolated light showers are still possible mainly over higher
terrain through later this this afternoon. Then, moisture will
diminish as the trough continues to weaken and drift westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stalling cold front from 27N67W to across the SE
Bahamas and eastern Cuba will gradually dissipate through early
Friday. A ridge will build along 25N in the wake of the front. A
weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early on
Friday, reach from Bermuda to S Florida Saturday, then will
stall and gradually dissipate along 25N through early next week
as high pres from the SE United States builds eastward across
the area.


A cold front reaches from 31N58W to 26N67W, then extends farther
to eastern Cuba as a stationary front. Scattered cloudiness and a
few showers are noted within 60 nm of the frontal boundary, but
otherwise fairly dry conditions persist, and no significant cloud
cover or convection is noted. A ridge will build along 25N in the
wake of the front. A weak cold front will move off the NE Florida
coast early on Friday, reach from Bermuda to S Florida Saturday,
then will stall and gradually dissipate along 25N through early
next week as high pres from the SE United States builds eastward
across the area west of 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
is under the influence of a 1035 mb high pressure located just
south of the Azores. Fresh trade winds are noted in latest
scatterometer satellite This high extends a ridge SW to near the
NE Caribbean.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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