[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 30N68W
S-SW to the Windward Passage near 19N75W where it becomes
stationary continuing to western Jamaica and then to northern
Panama. Strong high pressure continues to build west of the
front across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea as well as Honduras and
Nicaragua. This is resulting in gale force winds between the front
and the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. The
front will remain stationary through Tuesday and will dissipate
Wednesday. Gale force winds are expected to diminish by early
morning Tuesday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N21W to 04N36W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are from 0N to 04N between
the Prime Meridian and 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong surface high pressure prevails across the entire basin
being anchored by a 1035 mb high over NE Mexico and a pair of two
stronger high pressure centers over the NW CONUS. Deep layer dry
air, as shown by CIRA LPW and Water Vapor imagery, continue to
support clear skies. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N winds are
basin-wide. The ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Monday
ahead of the next cold front that will enter the northern basin
Tuesday morning. This new front will move across Florida and the E
Gulf through Wednesday supporting fresh NW winds in the NE basin. Moderate
northerly winds will be across the basin Wednesday into Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin is a stationary front extending from
the Windward Passage near 19N75W continuing to western Jamaica
and then to northern Panama. Strong high pressure building west
of the front across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea is resulting in
gale-force winds between the front and the coasts of Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and northern Panama. Besides the winds, scattered
showers are within 105 nm either side of the front. Isolated
showers are in the Windward Passage extending to Haiti and NW
Dominican Republic due to the proximity of the front. Deep layer
dry air support fair weather elsewhere. The front will remain
stationary through Tuesday and begin to gradually weaken through
mid-week. See special features section for further details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage extending to Haiti
and NW Dominican Republic due to the proximity of a stationary
front to the west. This shower activity is forecast to continue
through Tuesday as the front will continue to stall before
dissipating Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
SW North Atlc between a middle to upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula and an upper level ridge
anchored over adjacent waters between Panama and Colombia. The
troughing supports the Special Features cold front which extends
from 30N68W S-SW to the Windward Passage near 19N75W where it
becomes stationary continuing to northern Panama. Scattered
showers and tstms are occurring generally within 190 nm E of the
front while isolated showers are within 120 nm W of it. The
remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a pair of 1030's highs SW of the Azores Islands. A weakness in
this ridge is analyzed as a surface trough that extends from
29N42W to 19N47W with scattered to isolated showers from 16N to
28N between 36W and 46W. The front will stall Tuesday morning
while the trough is forecast to drift westward across the
central Atlc through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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