[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system is in the Gulf of Mexico extending as a
stationary front across northern Florida to 29N82W where it
transitions to a warm front that continues SW to a 1008 mb low
near 25N89W. A cold front extends from the low SW to the eastern
Bay of Campeche near 18N92W. A strong ridge continue to build in
the wake of the front, thus supporting gale force winds N and SW
of the front with seas reaching up to 18 ft. Gale conditions in
the Gulf are forecast to prevail through Saturday morning.
Scattered showers and tstms are within 105 nm ahead of the cold
front and within 60 nm either side of the warm front. Please read
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN...

The front over the Gulf of Mexico will make a complete transition
to a cold front this evening and is forecast to enter NW Caribbean
waters on Saturday morning. Strong to near gale-force winds will
will follow the front as it moves SE across Cuba Saturday. Gale
force winds are forecast to form off the coast of Nicaragua Sunday
morning as the tail of the front reaches Costa Rica. There is a
high risk of heavy rains for Costa Rica and western Panama
Saturday evening through Monday morning associated with this
front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across the Africa coast near 06N10W
to east Atlantic waters near 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from that last point to 02N31W to 01N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 03E to 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system is in the Gulf of Mexico extending as a
stationary front across northern Florida to 29N82W where it
transitions to a warm front that continues SW to a 1008 mb low
near 25N89W. A cold front extends from the low SW to the eastern
Bay of Campeche near 18N92W. Strong high pressure builds behind
the front supporting gale-force winds N and SW of the front. See
the special feature section for further details. The front is
forecast to fully transition to a cold front this evening and move
off the basin to the SW Atlc and the NW Caribbean Saturday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough persists in the SW Caribbean in a deep moisture
region and underneath upper level diffluent flow. This scenario
allows for the continuation of scattered heavy showers in the SW
basin S of 16N between 76W and 83W. Similar convection is over
central southern Cuba adjacent waters N of 19N. A center of low
pressure will develop near the southern extent of this trough
within the next 24 hours allowing for the continuation of showers
in that region. Furthermore, a cold front forecast to enter the
NW Caribbean waters on Saturday morning will reach the SW basin
Sunday increasing the shower activity. Potential heavy rain and
gale winds are forecast for portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and
Panama. See the special features section for further details.
Otherwise, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front are
analyzed as a surface trough that extends across the NE Caribbean
waters along 14N61W to SE Hispaniola adjacent waters near 17N70W.
Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of this
boundary.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island as a surface high centered
over the central Atlantic extends through the area. Isolated
convection could develop in the afternoon hours through the
weekend due to daytime heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N78W
to NE Florida near 29N81W. A pre-frontal trough extends from
30N77W to 25N79W. Scattered to isolated showers are ahead of the
trough to near 72W. To the east, a 1024 mb surface high is
centered near 29N58W, which is forecast to move NE and N of
surface waters by Saturday morning. Finally, in the NE Atlc, a
cold front extends from 29N32W SW to 19N36W where it transitions
to a stationary front along 15N44W to 14N52W. A surface trough
follows westward towards the northern Windward Islands near
14N61W. Scattered showers are N of 26N between 28W and 39W. A
surface ridge prevails east of this front. During the next 24
hours, the frontal boundary over the west Atlantic will push
southeast through Saturday. A new low pressure area will develop
under the upper-level low in the central Atlantic and will move
southwest over our area of discussion enhancing convection. Strong
winds will follow this front. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more
details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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