[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through central Florida near 28N82W, to
26N90W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 24N93W. The
stationary front continues from the 1010 mb low pressure center,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Expect N-to-NE
gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet,
within 90 nm of the line from 29N93W to 26N95W. Gale-force winds
are being forecast with respect to the cold front, during the next
42 hours. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Upper
level moisture is moving from the Yucatan Channel toward and
across the southern half of Florida. Upper level moisture also is
to the north of the line that runs from the coast of Mexico near
23N97W, to 25N90W, beyond 29N83W. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible/likely across the Gulf of Mexico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 03N33W,
04N42W, and 02N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers within 120 nm on either side of the
line from 02N at the Prime Meridian, to 04N14W to 05N26W and
05N35W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 02N to 10N between
35W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 42W/43W from 05N to 10N. rainshowers are
possible within 60 nm on either side of the trough.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
current cold front, that passes through NE Florida, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Mexico coast near 20N98W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

mostly MVFR, with some IFR, at the platform sites.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CONDITIONS WITH THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT: MVFR/IFR
and light rain in most places. some stations are reporting light
snow from Victoria northward, to Jasper, and even to the greater
Houston metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities.
LOUISIANA: MVFR and light rain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR and a
mixture of light rain and light snow, and some VFR. ALABAMA: some
MVFR/VFR. other areas of LIFR/IFR and heavy rain. FLORIDA: IFR and
heavy rain from Cross City toward the NW and W. MVFR/IFR, and a
small bit of LIFR, from Brooksville to Sarasota. LIFR and fog from
Punta Gorda to the Fort Myers metropolitan area.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from N Colombia to the NW part of
Cuba.

A surface trough is along 14N80W 19N85W, in the area of the
offshore waters of Honduras and Nicaragua. Precipitation:
scattered strong rainshowers from 13N to 17N between 80W and 83W.
isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N northward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W 10N80W, beyond southern
Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers from 14N southward from 76W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from the
Greater Antilles southward to 13N from 72W eastward. This
precipitation is related to remnant atmospheric instability,
from an already- dissipated frontal boundary of the last few
days, that has moved into the area from the Atlantic Ocean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAITI: VFR. scattered cumulonimbus clouds
in Port-au-Prince. in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR at all the
observation stations.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will start
along the line from N Colombia to SE Cuba, and then to a line
from N Colombia across Hispaniola. Expect W-to-NW wind flow
during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2
days, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that broad E-to-SE wind flow, with an intermittent
inverted troughs during day one, and broad anticyclonic wind flow
at the end of day two.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is in the east-central sections of the
Atlantic Ocean, along 32N37W 27N36W 20N35W. A trough/shear line
continues from 20N35W to 16N42W 14N52W 15N60W. The trough
supports a cold front that curves through 32N32W to 25N35W to
20N40W. A stationary front continues from 20N40W to 17N47W, and
to 16N54W. A surface trough continues from 16N54W to 16N65W in the
Caribbean Sea. A large area of comparatively drier air in
subsidence is to NW of the trough/shear line. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 22N northward between 31W and
33W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward between 42W and 75W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is
near 30N60W.

A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to 25N23W
to 17N28W, and 08N34W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net