[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from St. George Island Florida SW to 27N90W
where it transitions to a warm front that connects to a 1015 mb
low near 26N95W. Another cold front extend from the low SW to
Tampico, Mexico. Frequent gust to gale force winds are north of
the front with seas reaching to 9 ft. Strong to gale force
northerly winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the
front as it moves across the basin through Saturday morning. Latest
model guidance indicates reinforcing cold air, with gale force
winds over the west-central gulf on Thu, and over the SW gulf by
Thu night. 12 ft seas are likely to occur in the central and
western Gulf Thu through late Fri night, with a peak close to 18
ft in the SW Gulf. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N13W to
05N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N
E of 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS
continue to support a cold front that at 1500 UTC extends from St.
George Island Florida SW to 27N90W. From that point it transitions
to a warm front that connects to a 1015 mb low near 26N95W.
Another cold front extend from the low SW to Tampico, Mexico.
Frequent gust to gale force winds are north of the front with seas
reaching to 9 ft. Isolated showers are within 165 nm N and W of
the front and within 90 nm E of it. A weak surface trough is in
the Bay of Campeche extending from 22N93W to 17N94W with isolated
showers within 75 nm either side of its axis. Deep layer dry air
support fair weather elsewhere ahead of the front. The front is
forecast to move ESE and exit South Florida Saturday morning. Heavy
showers are expected in the SE Gulf Friday into Saturday as the
front moves off the basin. For further details see special
features.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep moisture over the SW Caribbean is interacting with diffluent
flow aloft and support a cluster of moderate to isolated strong
convection from 11N to 14N W of 80W. Isolated showers are
elsewhere in the SW basin being supported by the eastern
extension of the EPAC monsoon trough. The tail of a cold front
over the central Atlc waters is fast approaching the NE Caribbean
and will support showers and tstms through Friday night, including Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands. The remainder
of the Caribbean is generally void of convection. High pressure
north of the region supports fresh to near gale-force winds over
the Central Caribbean being the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. Heavy showers are expected to develop Friday night over
the NW Caribbean associated with a cold front entering the region
Saturday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

Deep layer dry air in the region supports fair weather through
this evening. Showers are forecast to develop tonight mainly
across the eastern half of the Island associated with the tail of
a cold front over the central Atlc waters. This shower activity is
expected to continue through early Friday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong ridging prevails over SW N Atlc waters being anchored by a
1026 mb high near 33N63W. A cold front associated with a vigorous
low pressure system N of the area extends along 30N38W SW to
20N50W to 21N62W. Diffluence aloft support scattered moderate
convection within 210 nm E of the front N of 23N. A reinforcing cold
front extends from a 1011 mb low near 30N45W SW to 26N46W to
25N51W. There is no convection associated with this boundary at
this time. Fresh to near gale-force winds are N of 27N E of the
front to 35W and W of the front to 55W. A weak pre-frontal trough
extends from 21N34W to 15N37W with no convection. High pressure
centered over Spain extends SW and covers the remainder of the
eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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