[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060612 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

CORRECTED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, through SE
Louisiana, to the lower Texas Gulf coast. Expect gale-force NE
winds and sea heights building to 8 feet, to the NW of the cold
front. The gale-force wind conditions will last for the next 18
hours or so, and then change to less than gale-force wind speeds.
The cold front will continue to move toward the E and SE,
through the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front position for Thursday
afternoon will be approximately along 27N83W 26N89W 23N94W
18N93W. Expect gale-force NW-to-N winds, and sea heights from 9
feet to 13 feet, from 21N to 24N W of 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to
06N30W, 05N44W, and to 02N50W at the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong rainshowers are from 01N to 09N between 10W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow and comparatively-
drier air in subsidence cover the Gulf of Mexico to the east of
the line from 30N86W to 27N90W to 23N95W to 19N94W. A middle
level to upper level trough extends from the SE Gulf of Mexico
into the Yucatan Channel.

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, through SE
Louisiana, to the lower Texas Gulf coast. Upper level westerly
wind flow is to the west of the cold front. Low level clouds and
rain are along the frontal boundary.

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the central
Gulf of Mexico, and finally into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.
IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KEMK, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT, KEIR, and KSPR.
MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KVAF, KVOA, and KDLP.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from the DEEP SOUTH of TEXAS to TALLAHASSEE in FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR
and isolated areas of LIFR, and rain, some thunder, with the
current cold front. for the rest of FLORIDA: MVFR or VFR. the
cold front has not reached Florida, yet.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Large scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves through the
SW corner of the area, toward Hispaniola, and then curving
toward the east and southeast.

Middle level-to-700 mb NE wind flow covers the area that is from
16N northward from 80W westward.

A surface trough extends from central Panama to NE Nicaragua and
E Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to
09N80W in Panama, beyond 10N86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 10N to 13N
between 80W and 83W. isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere from 17N southward between 80W and the coastline of
Central America, and from the coast to 10N between 77W and 79W
along the coast of Panama.

A surface trough is in the E part of the Caribbean Sea, along
18N65W 15N66W 10N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 10N to 17N between 60W and 70W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
06/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.16 in
Curacao, and 0.07 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is approaching the area from the
northwest, from the waters that are between the Bahamas and Cuba.
Upper level SW wind flow is approaching the area from the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti. in the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Puerto Plata: rainshowers with thunder.
VFR, elsewhere. few cumulonimbus clouds in Barahona and in Santo
Domingo.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will start
along the line from Colombia to the Yucatan Peninsula, to a line
from Colombia through the Windward Passage. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic circulation center
will be just to the east of the Bahamas along 23N, at the start
of the 48-hour forecast period. The anticyclonic circulation
center eventually will move eastward, more into the Atlantic
Ocean, by about 550 nm at the end of the 48-hour forecast
period. NW wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola at the
start of day one, and the wind flow eventually will become
cyclonic with an east-to-west oriented trough by the end of day
one. Day two will start with the trough being pushed southward
by the Atlantic Ocean ridge and the large-scale anticyclonic
circulation center. Expect SE-to-S wind flow during day two. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with
a NW-to-SE oriented ridge, which will give way to NE wind flow,
and then followed by a NW-to- SE oriented inverted trough across
the area at the end of day one. Day two will consist of first E-
to-SE wind flow across the area, giving way to large-scale SE
wind flow as part of the large-scale Atlantic Ocean anticyclonic
wind flow.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central sections of
the Atlantic Ocean. The trough supports a cold front that passes
through 32N42W to 27N47W to 25N56W. A surface trough remains
from an already-dissipated stationary front from the last 24
hours or so, along 30N41W 21N48W 21N59W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N38W 24N41W 20N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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