[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
540 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the African coast
near 07N13W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present
within 50 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northwest Gulf waters from 30N87W
to 26N94W with isolated showers. A surface trough extends
southeast from the front near 26N92W to 22N90W. Isolated showers
are occurring along this boundary. Elsewhere, relatively dry and
stable conditions prevail aloft as a broad mid to upper level
ridge maintains subsident flow over much of Mexico and all but the
western Gulf. Precipitation with the front and trough is expected
to remain shallow with generally gentle to moderate northeast
winds. The cold front will move slowly across the northern Gulf
waters becoming stationary across on Friday as the surface trough
drifts westward and weakens. Thereafter...the southern periphery
of a surface ridge anchored over the eastern CONUS will provide
gentle to moderate southeast winds through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the basin on the
northern periphery of an upper-level anticyclonic circulation
centered near the Gulf of Panama. Generally dry air aloft and
overall stable conditions are noted across the central and east
Caribbean. A surface trough extends from 18N88W to 15N83W with
isolated showers. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed
over the southwest Caribbean south of 11N in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough which crosses the area from 10N83W to 10N76W.
Farther east, the only other area of note is a surface trough
analyzed across the southeast Caribbean from 16N63W to 12N64W with
isolated showers. Gentle to moderate trades will persist east of
80W through Saturday, with slightly stronger northeast winds
anticipated near the coast of Colombia and south of Cuba on Sat
and Sun as high pressure builds southward across the Florida
peninsula and west Atlantic area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across
the island as dry northwest flow aloft remains in place over the
area. Little change is expected through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is noted over the west
Atlantic supporting a 1010 mb low centered near 26N67W. A surface
trough extends from the low to 22N73W and a stationary front
extends from the low to 26N59W to 25N52W. An area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms spans from 24N-29N between 55W-65W, with
most activity focused along and north of the stationary front.
The low is forecast to move east through Saturday into the central
Atlantic and deepen N of the discussion area between 35W and 55W
Sunday and Monday. The remainder of the west Atlantic area remains
under relatively quiet conditions with the exception of a surface
trough extending along 75W with isolated showers. Farther east,
deep layer low pressure is centered over the central North Atlantic
near 39N44W. The associated cold front enters the discussion area
near 31N25W to 23N39W. To the east, a surface ridge influences
much of the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high centered
near 25N23W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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