[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 282040
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the
disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp
trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the
trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better
organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the
northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing,
the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are
diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next
24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation
occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning
area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire
extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the
transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over
warm waters.

In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not
exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes
the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward
the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already
embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a
trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the
northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 32.2N  79.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0600Z 33.4N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  29/1800Z 35.6N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  30/0600Z 38.0N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 40.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z 43.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1800Z 47.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/1800Z 51.6N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
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