[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281154
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.6N 96.1W at 28/1200 UTC
or about 20 nm NE of Port O'Connor Texas moving SE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 28N-33N between 90W-98W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 27N-34N between
88W-98W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 31.0N 80.7W at
28/1200 UTC or about 116 nm SSW of Charleston South Carolina and
about 240 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina remaining
stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 28N-33N between 74W-81W. See latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 11N17W to 20N14W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave continues to move off the West African coast and is
largely associated with a 700 mb low centered near 10N20W and
maximum 850 mb relative vorticity maximized over the area off the
coast from 08N-14N between 13W-24W. A 1009 mb low is analyzed at
the southern extent of the wave axis providing focus for
scattered moderate convection from 08N-14N between 17W-25W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N32W to 24N32W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W.
Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust
surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough axis. No
significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this
time.

A tropical wave extends from 13N61W to 24N62W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb between
56W-63W and continues to generate widely scattered moderate
convection from 17N-24N between 56W-65W.

A tropical wave extends from 13N74W to 22N72W moving W at 10-15
kt. Subtle 700 mb troughing aloft is noted in the vicinity of the
wave between 70W-75W and continues to generate isolated moderate
convection from 18N-23N between 68W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N17W to 12N26W to 12N40W to
10N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N
between 25W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N
between 35W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The surface circulation of Harvey is slowly moving back out
across the waters of the NW Gulf this morning and continues to
produce scattered to numerous showers and scattered strong tstms
across the NW and north-central Gulf waters generally N of 28N W
of 88W and within 30 nm either side of a line from 29N93W to
27N94W to 23N98W. Harvey remains on the northwestern periphery of
an upper level ridge anchored over the NE and central Gulf near
26N87W that extends influence over the entire Gulf basin from the
NE waters to the SW waters and the Florida peninsula. To the east
of Harvey...upper level divergence associated with the ridging
supports scattered showers and tstms occurring across the eastern
Gulf S of 28N E of 87W in association with a surface trough
extending from Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten across the central
Florida peninsula to the Tampa Bay region and into the eastern
waters near 26N86W. The remainder of the Gulf is under mostly
gentle to moderate southerly winds with the exception of gentle to
moderate cyclonic winds across the eastern Gulf in closer
proximity to the surface troughing across Florida. Harvey is
expected to remain in the vicinity of the Texas coast through mid-
week with a ridge axis extending from the Florida peninsula to
the SW Gulf as Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten moves NE in the SW
North Atlc waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America N of
Honduras are under the influence of NE flow aloft with upper
level convective debris cloudiness moving over the NW Caribbean
and Yucatan peninsula this morning. To the east...an upper level
low is centered near 17N80W generating isolated showers and tstms
in the adjacent coastal waters of central Cuba. As the upper
level low continues to retrograde...upper level ridging will
continue to build in over the eastern Caribbean today. A tropical
wave currently across the central Caribbean along 73W will likely
benefit with a favorable divergent environment aloft supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring between 68W-77W.
Another tropical wave along 62W will bring isolated showers and
tstms to the Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and the eastern
Caribbean waters today. Lastly...moderate to fresh trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Tuesday night. Thereafter...
trades across central portions of the basin will increase as high
pressure anchors to the N across the SW North Atlc waters.

...HISPANIOLA...
A tropical wave across the island is generating scattered showers
and isolated tstms this morning. As this wave passes...another
tropical wave currently across the Lesser Antilles will approach
Tuesday and bring another round of convective precipitation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to impact the
northwestern portion of the discussion area this morning.
Scattered showers and tstms associated with the area of low
pressure links up with a stationary front analyzed from near the
low to 33N76W to a 1012 mb low centered near 35N69W. Convection
associated with this area of low pressure and frontal boundary
remains NW of a line 27N80W to 34N67W. This convection lies on the
northwestern periphery of a surface ridge with axis extending from
30N60W to the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel area.
Farther east...an upper level low is centered near 30N50W and
supports a surface trough analyzed from 28N50W to 31N49W.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 28N-32N between
47W-52W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered in the vicinity of the Azores near 39N32W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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