[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 29.0N 97.0W at 27/2100 UTC
or about 22 nm northwest of Victoria Texas, moving southeast at 2
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 26N between 88W-93W. See the latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

As of 27/2100 UTC, the 1007 mb low centered over the west Atlantic
near 31.2N80W has been called Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten.
Maximum sustained wind speeds with this low are near 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. The low is currently stationary and is embedded
on a frontal boundary that extends west to the coast of Louisiana
near 30N89W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to affect the western Atlantic, Florida Peninsula, and
eastern Gulf of Mexico between 73W-86W. The low is likely to
become a tropical depression or storm during the next day or so.
This system has a high chance for development during the next 48
hours. Regardless of development, the low is expected to cause
increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia, the
Carolinas, and Virginia through mid- week. See the latest
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT25 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 24N30W to 12N31W, moving
west at around 10 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb
trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture in
this wave's environment. Satellite imagery also shows the presence
of Saharan dust north of the wave. No significant deep convection
is associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 23N60W to 13N56W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700
mb and continues to generate scattered moderate convection from
15N-22N between 52W-60W. This wave will enter the eastern
Caribbean during the next 24 hours enhancing convection over the
Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave extends its axis across the eastern-central
Caribbean from 22N68W to 10N72W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This
wave continues to provide isolated showers across coastal waters
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 18N-21N between 66W-72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 12N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-15N and east of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface circulation of T.S. Harvey is inland over southeast
Texas. A band of convection is moving over the north-central Gulf
waters mainly north of 26N between 88W-93W. Significant inland flooding
is forecast to continue for the next several days as Harvey stays
nearly stationary and weakening slowly. Refer to the section
above for more details about Harvey. To the east, the Potential
T.C. Ten is centered over the west Atlantic. A surface trough
extends from the low, across the Florida Peninsula and into the
Gulf waters from 30N81W to 27N85W. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms prevail across the Gulf waters from 23N-27N and
east of 88W. See the Special Features section above for more
details. Scatterometer data depicts variable fresh to strong winds
over the far east and far west Gulf, while gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the central Gulf. Little change is expected
during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean while another wave
will be entering the eastern Caribbean in 24 hours. See the
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered south of
Cuba enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters
north of 18N and west of 77W. To the south, the eastern extent of
the eastern Pacific's monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and
Panama producing scattered moderate convection south of 10N.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is currently moving across the eastern portion of
the island enhancing convection. Expect similar activity to
continue through the next 24 hours as the waves moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Potential T.C. Ten is centered over the western Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted north 27N between
72W-80W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to
the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered near 39N34W. A surface trough is over the central
Atlantic from 33N51W to 28N55W with isolated showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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