[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Harvey is now a category 4 hurricane centered near
27.8N 96.8W at 26/0000 UTC or about 30 nm E of Corpus Christi
Texas, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present
north of 26N and west of 90W. See latest Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 22N25W to a 1011 mb low
near 18N27W to 12N29W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. The wave
coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing. Infrared satellite
imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust flanking the north side
of the wave. No convection is observed with this wave at this
time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N45W to a 1010 mb low
near 15N43W to 10N40W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection within 30 nm to the northwest of the low
center. The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing.

The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the far
western Caribbean with axis along 88W. Global model guidance
suggests subtle 700 mb troughing between 85W-90W moving over
portions of Central America and the East Pacific waters. The
convection associated to this wave remains over land affecting
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and Honduras.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 22N17W to 14N31W to 09N48W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 09N48W to 08N59W.
No significant deep convection is associated with the monsoon
trough or ITCZ at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The primary weather threat for the Gulf of Mexico continues to be
Hurricane Harvey which continues to track NW toward the southern
Texas coast. Please refer to the section above for more details.
To the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered on the Florida
coast close to Sarasota near 28N82W. A surface trough extends from
28N85W to the west Atlantic near 31N79W. Scattered moderate
convection is mainly south of 29N and east of 87W affecting the
southern portion of the Florida Peninsula and Straits, the
Yucatan Channel, and even western Cuba. Scatterometer data depicts
a variable gentle to moderate flow across the eastern half of the
basin. As Harvey slows down and impacts the NW Gulf waters and
coastal Texas through the upcoming weekend, the troughing and
weaker low pressure across the eastern Gulf waters are expected to
maintain unsettled conditions across the Florida peninsula before
the low moves NE into the SW North Atlantic waters by late this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across
western Cuba and the adjacent waters supported by the low pressure
system developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Another area
of scattered moderate convection prevails over the southwest
Caribbean enhanced by the presence of the monsoon trough along
10N. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the basin. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to persist through the weekend into Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible across
central Hispaniola with maximum daytime heating and instability,
along with local sea breeze effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western Atlantic
west of 74W related to the surface low/trough that extend across
this area from the Gulf of Mexico. Farther east across the
remainder of the basin, ridging prevails anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 41N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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