[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Harvey is centered near 25.6N 95.1W at 25/0600 UTC or
about 180 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas and about 180 nm SSE of
Port O'Connor Texas moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 23N to 28N
between 90W and 96W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 24N-27N between 93W-96W...and from 22N-25N
between 90W-92W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
24N-30N between 90W-97W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 07N25W to 20N25W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between
18W- 29W. Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan
dust surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough
axis generally along 13N. No significant deep convection is
occurring at this time.

A tropical wave extends from 08N41W to 20N41W moving W at 5-10
kt. A weak 1012 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N
and is providing focus for isolated moderate convection from
16N-18N between 38W-43W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N88W to 16N87W moving W at 15-20
kt. Global model guidance suggests subtle 700 mb troughing between
83W-90W moving over portions of Central America and the East
Pacific waters to the S. Widely scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N-16N between 83W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
12N25W to 11N41W to 10N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from
05N-12N between 27W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary concern for the Gulf of Mexico is Hurricane Harvey
that continues to track toward the southern Texas coast. Harvey
remains on the western periphery of an upper level ridge extending
from over the Lower Mississippi River valley southward over the
central Gulf to over the northern Yucatan peninsula. The ridge
also extends influence over the SE Gulf and southern Florida
peninsula this evening supporting a 1011 mb low centered W of
Fort Myers Florida near 27N82W. A surface trough extends N from
the low to the Florida Big Bend region near 30N83W and another
surface trough extends W from the low to 25N86W. The low along
with the boundaries in place and upper level divergence over the
region are generating scattered showers and tstms E of 85W...
including portions of the Florida peninsula. As Harvey impacts the
NW Gulf waters and coastal Texas through the upcoming weekend...
the troughing and weaker low pressure across the eastern Gulf
waters are expected to maintain unsettled conditions across the
Florida peninsula as the low moves NE and into the SW North Atlc
waters through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America are under
the influence of NW flow aloft and an overall divergent pattern
supporting scattered showers and tstms occurring N of 19N between
75W-87W...and the remainder of the area W of 80W...including
portions of Central America in the vicinity of a tropical wave
along 88W. Otherwise...farther east...much of the central and
eastern Caribbean is under dry air aloft and mostly fair
conditions at the surface this evening. An inverted upper level
trough extends from E of Puerto Rico near 18N65W to over NW
Venezuela near 11N69W with moderate to fresh trades prevailing.
This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the
weekend into Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies prevail this evening across the island with
these overall conditions expected to persist through the weekend.
Isolated afternoon showers and tstms are possible across western
Hispaniola with maximum daytime heating and instability...along
with local sea breeze effects.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper level ridging and an overall divergent upper level pattern
prevails over the SW North Atlc this evening generating scattered
showers and tstms remaining W of 75W. Water vapor imagery also
indicates an upper level trough moving off the SE CONUS with the
base of this trough over northern Florida and the NE Gulf of
Mexico. The trough supports a 1010 mb low centered over southern
South Carolina and a stationary front extending from 34N76W to the
low near 33N82W and then to the Florida panhandle. Farther east
across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...ridging
prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores
near 40N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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