[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of regenerated Tropical Depression Harvey at 23/1800
UTC is near 21.5N 92.5W, or about 465 nm to the SSE of Port
Oconnor in Texas, or about 405 nm to the SE of Port Mansfield in
Texas. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts
to 40 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Harvey is stationary. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical
Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT34
KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being
issued under the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and under the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT4. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and 94W. isolated moderate
in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N to the NE corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N35W 10N39W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 13N between 35W and 41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 19N southward to
the Colombia/Panama border. The wave is cutting through the
eastern sections of Jamaica, moving westward 10 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from the coasts of
Panama and Costa Rica to 11N between 79W and 82W. scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in broad cyclonic wind flow, and
from 11N to 15N in eastern Honduras between 80W and 84W, and
elsewhere from 12N southward between 75W and Nicaragua. isolated
moderate from 15N to 17N between 73W and 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 10N17W, 17N25W, 17N36W, and 06N50W. Convective
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 09N to 13N
between 22W and 24W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 14W and 41W. isolated
moderate from 07N to 10N between 41W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Harvey is in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The forecast moves Harvey to the Texas coast, as a
Tropical Storm, between 48 hours and 72 hours. Please read the
special bulletins, the forecast/advisory MIATCMAT4 or the public
advisory MIATCPAT4, for more details. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and
94W. isolated moderate in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N
to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N80W,
across Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to 24N83W in the SE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
along the trough near 25N82W. The forecast for the trough and
low pressure center is to maintain their positions near Florida,
surrounded by rainshowers during the next few days. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N
near Cuba to 27N in south Florida between 75W and the Bahamas
and 81W in south Florida.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: heavy rain in Pearland. rain and thunder at the Ellington
Field in the Houston metropolitan area. rain and thunder have
ended for the moment in Galveston. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the
Mobile metropolitan area. rain and thunder near Dothan. FLORIDA:
rain and drizzle in Mary Esther. towering cumulus clouds at the
NAS in Key West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
17N southward between 82W in the SW corner of the area, and 64W
along the coast of Venezuela.

Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is to the west of
the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua.
This NE wind flow is part of larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow
that also is present in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.83 in
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.67 in Merida in Mexico, 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and and 0.04 in
Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence also spans the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will
consist of N-to-NE wind flow across Hispaniola, that is moving
around a Bahamas anticyclonic circulation center. Day two will
consist of N wind flow, moving around an eastern Caribbean Sea
cyclonic circulation center. Day two will consist of
anticyclonic wind flow at the start of day one. An inverted
trough eventually develops early on day one, and that trough
continues across Hispaniola for the rest of day one, and during
all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE
wind flow will move across the area, with at least one inverted
trough mixed into the larger-scale wind flow, for each day of
the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N60W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N
northward between 52W and 74W. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 22N to 24N between 55W and
57W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 23N
northward between 53W and 70W.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N32W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N38W, to a 16N47W cyclonic circulation center. An
upper level inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from
10N to 18N between 54W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 25N55W 18N57W 11N60W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers from 10N to 18N between 55W and 58W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 34N48W, through 32N56W, to 29N68W, to the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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