[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 18/0300 UTC, Tropical Storm Harvey is located near 13.0N 57.4W,
moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 35 kt with gusts
to 45 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted
from 11N-15N between 57W-63W. Harvey should move through the
Windward Islands and entering the eastern Caribbean today. Slow
strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. Harvey is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to
Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides. See see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N46W to a 1009 mb low near
16N46W to 10N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly
on the west semicircle of the low center from 15N-19N between
46W-50W. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
this area of low pressure has changed little in organization
during the past several hours. However, only a slight increase in
the organization of the shower activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days
before upper-level winds become less favorable for development
early next week. The low is expected to move west-northwestward
at about 15-20 kt during the next few days, and interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. This system has a high change of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic with axis
extending from 17N27W to a 1010 mb near 12N28W to 06N29W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-16N between 29W-34W. This wave is in
a very moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced
700 mb trough. Gradual development of this system is possible
through the middle of next week while the wave moves westward to
westward at about 15-20 kt. Currently, this system has a low
change of becoming a tropical cyclone through 5 days.

A broad tropical wave is moving westward across the Caribbean
extending its axis from 22N70W to 12N71W. A cluster scattered
moderate convection is noted over the northern part of the wave
axis from 18N-24N between 67W-72W. This convective activity is
affecting the northeastern part of Dominican Republic. The wave
shows up very well in the TPW animation and 700 mb streamline
analysis. Moisture associated with this wave will spread across
the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southern Bahamas, and the
remainder of Hispaniola tonight increasing the likelihood of rain.
Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted over waters
ahead of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis across the southern portion of
the Bay of Campeche and into the EPAC from 21N92W to 08N92W. The
wave is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over
southeast Mexico and adjacent waters south of 20N between 91W-95W.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and is well depicted in
TPW imagery.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
a 1010 mb low pressure 12N28W to 10N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of the monsoon trough's axis between
35W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb surface high centered over northeast Gulf near 27N87W
and extends its ridge across the region producing mainly gentle
to moderate winds based on scatterometer data. The tropical wave
currently moving across the Bay of Campeche will enhance the
convection tonight. A broad upper-level low is centered over
eastern Cuba enhancing convection in its periphery mostly
affecting Southern Florida and adjacent waters. Little change in
this weather pattern is expected through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 71W enhancing convection over
Hispaniola. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details.
Tropical Storm Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and
into the eastern Caribbean today. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Upper-level diffluent flow between an
anticyclonic circulation centered over the southeast CONUS and an
upper-level low spinning over eastern Cuba supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of central and western Cuba.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. The previously mentioned tropical wave will bring showers
and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba today, and over western Cuba
on Saturday. Isolated showers are also noted over the southwest
Caribbean, likely associated with the eastern extent of the
Pacific monsoon trough combined with a diffluent pattern aloft.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola keeping showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds, with the potential of locally
heavy rain through today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves and Tropical Storm Harvey are moving
westward across the tropical Atlantic. The northern portion of
a strong tropical wave is affecting the waters north of Hispaniola.
Please, see Special Features and Tropical Wave sections above for
details. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of
a surface ridge, with a center of 1025 mb located near 34N35W. A
belt of fresh to locally strong NE-E winds is noted per
scatterometer data roughly between 15N-22N due to the pressure
gradient between the ridge and the tropical systems located
between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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