[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
708 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Gert is centered near 33.7N 71.2W at 15/2100 UTC or
about 335 nm WNW of Bermuda moving N-NE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is from 32N-35N between 69W-73W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 28N-33N between 69W-76W. See latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 14N21W to 22N31W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1012 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave
axis and remains embedded within the monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N-16N between 30W-34W and isolated
moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-13N between 30W-35W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N59W to 23N53W moving W at 20-25
kt. The wave remains moving beneath dry air aloft associated with
a broad upper level ridge anchored near 20N42W that continues to
hinder any significant deep convection. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are occurring generally from 12N-19N between
52W-61W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N75W to 17N75W moving W at 15-20
kt. The wave is noted on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb
ridge anchored over the SW North Atlc near 27N64W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is occurring across portions of
northern Colombia.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
15N26W to 13N34W to a 1011 mb low near 14N43W then to 11N48W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N48W to 10N57W.
Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves...
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N-12N
between 14W-18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 05N-11N between 14W-24W...and from 13N-18N between 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level divergent flow persists over the northern Gulf coast
and interior portions of the SE CONUS between a broad upper level
low centered near 23N90W and an upper level anticyclone centered
near 30N80W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 28N
between 86W-94W across the Gulf waters and a large portions of the
SE CONUS from extreme eastern Texas to central Georgia. This
activity all lies on the northern side of a surface ridge
extending east to west along 26N and anchored by a 1018 mb high
centered off the coast of the Florida peninsula near 26N84W.
Mostly light to gentle anticyclonic flow is E of 90W and gentle to
moderate S-SE flow is W of 90W. The high is expected to persist
across the NE Gulf waters through Friday. A surface trough will
develop each evening across the Yucatan peninsula shifting W into
the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. Locally higher
winds can be expected in the vicinity of the trough axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is moving into the western Caribbean this
evening. The tropical wave will continue to propagate westward
across the remainder of the basin through late Wednesday. To the
west of the wave...the monsoon trough axis extends along 10N and
is providing focus for scattered showers and tstms remaining
generally S of 11N and continuing to impact Panama and Costa Rica.
Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across interior
portions of northern Nicaragua and Honduras as divergent middle to
upper level flow persists over Central America. Otherwise...fresh
to strong winds in the south-central waters are expected through
Thursday...with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level trough reaching across the region from the central
Atlantic will drift WSW to the north and over the island during
the next couple of days supporting scattered showers and isolated
tstms across the island and adjacent waters through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Scattered showers and tstms are N of 28N between 70W and 76W
associated with the convective rainbands of Hurricane Gert
centered north of the discussion area. Otherwise...the remainder
of the basin generally N of 20N is under the influence of the
Azores subtropical high which supports fair weather. Farther
east...scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted across sub-Saharan West Africa from 09N-16N
between 10W-18W. Likely related to the next tropical wave moving
through the region...this convection will move off the coast
during the overnight hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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