[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.8N 98.3W at 10/1200
UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Mexico City moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N between 94W-97W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between
93W-102w. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 10N32W to 21N30W moving W at 5-10
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing
between 27W-40W. A 1013 mb low is embedded within the monsoon
trough at the southern extent of the wave axis near 10N32W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 22N57W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N59W
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 18N-22N
between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 19N84W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N84W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
12N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N
between 13W-25W...and from 07N-12N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this morning is Tropical Storm Franklin as it
moves across interior portions of east-central Mexico and
continues to weaken. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue
to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 93W.
Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over
the Rio Grande River valley extends an axis eastward over the
northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil
conditions. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a
surface trough analyzed from the Florida Straits near 24N81W N-NE
to western Grand Bahama Island to 30N78W. This trough is forecast
to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and
precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters
through tonight. The trough is expected to stall across Florida
Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor
across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N84W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally
S of 16N between 76W-85W. The upper level low is forecast to move
west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave
moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of
mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to
fresh trades prevailing. A few scattered showers and tstms are
occurring across the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 63W-68W as
a tropical wave currently along 60W begins to impact the Lesser
Antilles and eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Florida
Straits and western Cuba this morning and reflects a surface
trough analyzed from 24N81W to 30N78W. The surface trough
provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 23N-
28N between 75W-81W. The upper level trough is expected to become
absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western
Caribbean Sea later today. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW
North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough
over the eastern CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front
extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to coastal Georgia
with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of
32N W of 73W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered
near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity
of the tropical wave between 55W-65W and a dissipating stationary
front analyzed along 27N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-28N between 53W-63W. The stationary front links E-NE to
a 1018 mb low centered near 32N38W. Isolated showers and tstms
are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 26N between 36W-
44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN/RAMOS
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