[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The now Hurricane Franklin is centered near 20.1N 94.9W at
09/2100 UTC or about 152 nm east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico,
moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous strong convection is from 16N-25N between 92W-100W. See
the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
20N28W to 07N31W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is experiencing
extensive Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to its environment,
which is hindering convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 24N54W to a 1014 mb low near 18N57W to 10N58W, and is moving
west at 10 kt. Shallow moisture along with upper-level diffluent
flow support scattered moderate convection from 16N-26N between
52W-59W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become somewhat
conducive for development of this system late this week and this
weekend while it move west over the western Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends is in the west Caribbean with axis
extending from 22N80W to 10N83W, moving west at 20-25 kt. A
cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms is west of the wave's
axis enhancing convection across Central America. Scattered
showers are also noted over the northern portion of the wave
affecting central Cuba and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
07N38W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N38W to
10N50W. Scattered showers are observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Franklin continues its track to the west across the
southwest waters. Numerous moderate to strong convection is south
of 24N and west of 92W. Rapid weakening is expected after Franklin
makes landfall over Mexico tonight. For further information,
please see the Special Features section above. Isolated showers
and tstms are across SW Louisiana and adjacent coastal waters
associated with a 1015 mb low over south Texas and a stationary
front that extends across the Gulf states. Fair weather and
gentle to moderate southeast winds prevail elsewhere across the
basin. A surface ridge will build across the area in the wake of
the storm by this upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean while another
one approaches from the east. Refer to the section above for
details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 11N
mainly associated with the EPAC's monsoon trough that extends
from Costa Rica to Panama to northwest Colombia. In the southeast
portion of the basin, shallow moisture and upper-level diffluence
support isolated showers south of 13N east of 65W affecting the
Windward Islands and adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show dry
air across the remainder Caribbean, which supports fair weather.
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the central
basin between 70W and 76W. These conditions will prevail through
the next two days. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are noted across Haiti mainly caused by daytime
heating and orographic lifting. Dry conditions will prevail
through the next few days as a deep layer dry airmass settles over
the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface trough is moving across the
northern Bahamas supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
from 22N-26N between 75W-80W. Over the north-central waters, with
lack of upper level support, a stationary front continues to
weaken along 31N40W to 28N50W to 28N58W. Isolated showers are
within 120 nm on either side of the front. A 1021 mb high is
centered near 28N35W, which is forecast to dissipate by Thu
morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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