[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 20.0N 89.9W at 08/1800
UTC or about 35 nm E of Campeche Mexico moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.  Scattered strong
convection is located over the eastern two-thirds of the Yucatan
peninsula.  See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 21N22W to 11N23W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave is well depicted in the 700 mb streamline analysis.
However, only minimal convection is associated with it.

A tropical wave extends from 20N48W to 10N53W moving W at 10-15
kt.  A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 15N51W
providing focus for scattered moderate to strong convection from
15N-21N between 45W-50W.  This wave is also well depicted in the
700 mb streamline analysis.

A tropical wave extends from 20N70W to 10N71W moving W at 10-15
kt.  The wave is beneath a middle/upper level trough with the
axis along 70W north of 17N.  Scattered moderate convection is
located over the northern third of the wave primarily over the
Dominican Republic and surrounding waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N16W to
10N23W to 08N33W to 10N41W.  Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is located from 05N-09N between 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle/upper level inverted trough is located over the western
Gulf with the axis along 97W/98W and is forecast to move W and
gradually weaken.  Broad anticyclonic flow aloft covers the
remainder of the Gulf.  A weak surface ridge extends from across
N Florida to the central Texas coast.  Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are occurring across the northern half of the
Gulf.  Otherwise, Tropical Storm Franklin continues tracking
across the Yucatan peninsula this afternoon and will move into
the Bay of Campeche later today and tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the Yucatan
peninsula and the far NW Caribbean this afternoon as it tracks W-
NW.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring N of 15N
W of 83W in association with Franklin with the deepest
convection along the immediate coast of the Yucatan peninsula.
Flow aloft is broadly cyclonic over a large area E of about 78W.
The tropical wave analyzed along 70W/71W and moving into the
central Caribbean is generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms N of 16N between 65W-72W.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tropical wave along 70W/71W is producing increasing
cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of
the Dominican Republic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large and well-defined middle/upper level cyclonic circulation
is located in the western Atlantic and centered near 24N73W and
is forecast to move W and then dip SW over the next two days.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located from 21N to 25N
between 68W and 74W including the southern Bahamas.  An upper
level anticyclonic circulation is located just N of the
discussion area near 34N55W.  Another middle/upper level
cyclonic circulation is located near 33N27W with a trough axis
extending SW to 20N38W.  Broad anticyclonic flow aloft covers
the far eastern Atlantic N of 18N.  Moderate easterly winds
aloft are located over the deep tropics S of 12N.  A 1021 mb
High is located near 29N34W and a 1022 mb High is located near
30N61W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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