[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.1N 88.0W at 08/0600
UTC or about 40 nm NNE of Chetumal Mexico and about 150 nm ESE of
Campeche Mexico moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and widely
scattered strong convection is from 17N-21N between 83W- 86W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere
from 13N-22N between 83W-93W...including portions of Central
America...the Yucatan peninsula...and southern Mexico. See the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 05N21W to 16N20W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 12W-26W and
an area of isolated moderate convection from 08N-15N between
13W-19W.

A tropical wave extends from 10N47W to 21N47W moving W at 10-15
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 15N47W
providing focus for widely scattered moderate convection from
14N-18N between 44W-49W.

A tropical wave extends from 09N68W to 20N67W moving W at 10-15
kt. While the low-level moisture convergence remains ample about
the axis...a vigorous upper level low is noted on water vapor
imagery centered near 22N68W that continues to provide a
favorable diffluent environment supporting scattered moderate
convection from 17N-22N between 63W-68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
05N30W to 13N37W to 16N45W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 07N47W to 07N58W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-10N between 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak upper level inverted troughing is noted over the western
Gulf W of 92W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging
between a ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over
the south-central Gulf near 23N88W. A surface ridge axis extends
from the SW North Atlc across the northern Florida peninsula to
the Texas Gulf coast near Corpus Christi. Isolated showers and
tstms are occurring along the western coast of Florida and
continue to gradually dissipate. A few other isolated showers are
also noted along the Texas and Louisiana coasts between 92W-97W.
Otherwise...Tropical Storm Franklin has made landfall across the
Yucatan peninsula this evening and will track into the SW Gulf
waters by late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Mostly gentle to
moderate E-SE winds are expected overnight across the basin...but
on Tuesday...fresh to strong easterly winds are expected
generally S of 24N as Franklin moves W-NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the NW Caribbean
this evening as it tracks W-NW across the Yucatan peninsula.
Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are occurring generally N
of 13N W of 82W in associated with Franklin. Farther east...a
majority of the central Caribbean is under the influence of
northerly flow aloft and fairly tranquil conditions. However a
tropical wave is analyzed along 67W moving across the eastern
Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from
15N-21N between 63W-67W. The convection continues to be enhanced
by an upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 22N68W. The
wave is expected to move westward with increased cloudiness and
precipitation expected across Hispaniola Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Fair conditions prevail this evening...however an approaching
tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and precipitation
across the island Tuesday and Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Upper level N-NE flow is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW
North Atlc within the northwestern periphery of a broad upper
level low centered N of Hispaniola near 22N68W. Overall this flow
supports fair conditions W of 70W as a surface ridge axis extends
from 30N70W to the northern Florida peninsula. Within the southern
periphery of the ridging...a surface trough and portions of a
tropical wave are analyzed from 26N62W to Puerto Rico near
18N67W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring 15N-21N between
63W- 67W...with isolated showers elsewhere from 20N-27N between
61W- 71W. Farther east...surface ridging extends along 27N between
30W- 60W...with only a weak surface trough boundary extending
into the discussion area from 32N36W to 27N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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