[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 18.6N 85.9W at 07/2100
UTC or about 135 nm east of Chetumal Mexico, moving northwest at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure, based on aircraft
reconnaissance, is 998 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Visual satellite imagery shows an eye trying to
develop near the center and infrared imagery indicates scattered
to numerous moderate convection within 120 nm of the center. The
convective activity is affecting most of Central America north
of 12N, including the Yucatan peninsula. See the latest NHC
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
and the Forecast Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa, and extends
along 18W/19W from 04N to 16N. It is moving west at 15-20 kt and
producing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly
within 150 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 46W in the central Atlantic from 10N to
21N with a 1012 mb low along the wave centered near 15.5N45.5W.
The wave is moving west at 15 kt. TPW imagery depicts abundant
tropical moisture in the wave environment. The low is the focus
for scattered moderate convection from 14N-17N between 41W-46W.

A tropical wave is along 65W in the eastern Caribbean south of
20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. While low-level moisture remains
evident about the axis, convection is minimal except SE of an
upper- low noted on water vapor imagery centered near 20N66W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
08N21W to 15N43W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends
from 10N47W to the coast of South America near 07N57W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 05N-09N between 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern part of the basin
from the Atlantic. Generally fair weather prevails across the
region, except for increasing clouds and showers near Yucatan
associated with TS Franklin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate southeasterly winds across the basin. Expect marine
conditions to rapidly deteriorate across the southwest Gulf as
Franklin reintensifies over the warm waters of the area Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Franklin is creating havoc across the northwest
Caribbean. Franklin will make landfall on the east coast of the
Yucatan peninsula tonight. Please refer to the special features
section above for more details. A relatively inconsequential
tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Despite
the lack of convection at this time, this wave is expected to
enhance some activity over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the
next 24 hours. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades across
the area east of 80W, with highest speeds south of 14N between
71W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An
approaching tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and
precipitation across the island during the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave/low are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered north
of Puerto Rico near 20N66W. This feature is reflected at the
surface as a trough that extends from 26N62W to 20N64W. Isolated
showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the trough.
The remainder of the area is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a pair of 1022 mb highs, centered near 30N68W
and 28N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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