[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands associated with a 1010 mb center of low pressure
located near 09N30W. The wave axis extends from 19N33W to the low
pressure center, and has been moving west at 5 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear,
however some Saharan dry air and dust is observed entering the
wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery show mainly a moderate moist
environment with some patches of dry air. Convection is confined
to the vicinity of the monsoon trough as scattered moderate with
isolated tstms from 07N to 12.5N between 24W and 40W. There is a
medium chance for this system to become a tropical depression by
early next week across the eastern or central tropical Atlc.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
20N44W to 11N44W, moving west at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however intrusion
of Saharan dry air and dust to its environment is inhibiting any
significant deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 18N71W to 10N71W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear,
however shallow moisture and upper level diffluence support
scattered to isolated showers from 14N to 20N between 61W and
74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
12N25W to 09N34W to 12N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 11N47W to 08N55W to 09N60W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 11N east of 19W and from 07N to 14N
between 49W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the SE CONUS with the base of the trough extending over the
north-central and NW Gulf waters. The troughing continue to
support a surface trough extending from Alabama near 31N86W SW to
inland Texas near 28N98W. Low-level moisture convergence along
this boundary along with divergent flow aloft generated by the
eastern periphery of a broad upper ridge anchored over NW Mexico
support scattered showers and isolated tstms mainly N of 26N E of
95W. The boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary through
Saturday night, then it is forecast to lift northward and
dissipate Sunday. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the
remaining basin being the support for generally fair weather
conditions and gentle to light southerly flow. No major changes
expected through Monday of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean generating
a broad area of scattered to isolated showers generally N of 14N
E of 74W. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of this wave
forecast to persist as the wave continue to move westward during
the weekend. Numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms are within
135 nm off the coast of Colombia between 71W and 76W with possible
gusty winds. In the NW basin, upper level diffluent flow along
with abundant moisture in the region, as depicted by the CIRA LPW
imagery, support scattered showers and tstms N of 14N W of 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
Island mainly S of 19N, including southern adjacent waters to 14N.
This shower activity is associated with a tropical wave that moves
over central Caribbean waters tonight. The tropical wave is
expected to be W of the island by Saturday night, however shower
activity is forecast to linger through early Sunday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave several hundred miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next
two days. See special features for further details. Otherwise, the
remainder Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by two 1024 mb highs...one near 28N69W and another near 29N51W,
which are forecast to stall during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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