[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low
pressure system extends from about 450 miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. A 1013 mb surface low was analyzed near 09N24W. To
the east of it, a tropical wave extends from 15N31W to a 1012 mb
low near 08N30W to 03N28W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 07N-11N between 21W-36W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual consolidation and
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
This system has a medium chance for development within the next
48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N41W to 11N47W, moving
west at 5 kt. The wave coincides with a sharp 700 mb troughing
between 40W-50W. The areal extent of the Saharan Air Layer across
the central tropical Atlantic is inhibiting any significant
convection with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N68W to 10N69W, moving
west at 5-10 kt. The wave continues moving within the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the west Atlantic
near 27N71W. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced due to
ample upper-level diffluence, is occurring from 14N-19N between
60W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
the Special Features lows, then to 11N39W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from that point to 06N55W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves, no deep convection
is observed at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the coast of Texas and Louisiana
with isolated moderate convection. The boundary is expected to
drift eastward with light to gentle anticyclonic winds expected
to prevail today. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the
southern Florida peninsula to the east-central coast of Mexico.
Fair weather conditions are expected to persist with the ridge
remaining in place across the basin through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean generating
a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms generally
east of 70W. Please refer to the section above for details. A
surface trough was analyzed from 20N81W to 12N81W with isolated
showers. Abundant low-level moisture combined with diffluence
aloft are enhancing scattered moderate convection over the Gulf of
Honduras and adjacent waters from 15N-18N between 83W-89W. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with
highest speeds near the tropical wave. As the tropical wave moves
westward, fresh to strong winds are expected to accompany the
wave with continued convection through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring across the southeastern adjacent
coastal waters due to an approaching tropical wave currently
located across the eastern Caribbean. The wave is expected to pass
south of the island today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected as the wave moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface low is centered over the west
Atlantic north of the area. Isolated showers are noted in the
vicinity of this feature affecting the waters north of 29N and
west of 78W. The remainder of the basi influence of
a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N70W
and a 1024 mb high near 30N55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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