[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

ical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 18N29W
to 08N26W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours. The wave
is in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear, and some
Saharan dry air and dust continue to enter the wave environment. A
broad cyclonic circulation is observed in the southern wave
environment where the monsoon moisture support scattered moderate
convection and isolated tstms from 06N to 11N between 26W and 34W.
The latest scatterometer pass showed a center of low pressure of
1010 mb E of this wave near 10N21W, which is supporting isolated
showers from 06N to 12N E of 26W. There is a medium chance for
this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N38W to 09N45W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of mainly low to moderate vertical wind
shear. However, it continues to be severely affected by Saharan
dry air and dust, which is suppressing convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean associated with a 1012 mb
low near 12N65W. The wave axis extends from 19N67W to the low, and
it has been moving W at 15 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
show abundant low level moisture in the wave environment that
along with diffluent flow aloft support scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 10N to 18N between 60W and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
07N30W to 11N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 10N47W to 12N60W. For convection information, see the
tropical waves section.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the eastern half of the United States with axis extending
from Minnesota to Louisiana adjacent waters. The troughing
supports a surface trough extending from the Florida panhandle
near 30N86W to the Texas coast near 26N97W. To the south of the
trough aloft, the eastern periphery of a broad ridge anchored over
NW Mexico generates divergent flow aloft that is supporting
numerous heavy showers off the coast of Texas from 25N to 28N and
scattered heavy showers with tstms elsewhere N of 26N. Fresh to
strong with occasional gusty winds are expected in these areas of
convection. The boundary is expected to drift northward tonight,
leaving the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic winds Friday.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the southern Florida
peninsula to the central Gulf. Mostly clear skies and fair
conditions are expected to persist with the ridge remaining in
place across the basin through Wednesday of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean generating
a broad area of scattered showers and tstms generally E of
70W. Abundant low level moisture and upper level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms over central Haiti and
Hispaniola adjacent waters to 15N. Father west, a surface trough
with axis from 18N78W to 10N81W support scattered showers and
tstms W of 76W. Fresh to strong winds are expected to accompany
the tropical wave with continued strong convection through Sunday
as it moves towards the W Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Abundant low level moisture and upper level diffluent flow
support scattered showers and tstms over central Haiti and
Hispaniola adjacent wa tropical wave is expected to
pass S of the island tonight into early Friday and then across
the remainder of the central Caribbean on Friday. Continued
scattered showers and tstms are expected through Friday across the
region with any lingering activity moving into the western
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered heavy showers and tstms are off the NE Florida coast
associated with a surface trough moving across the Florida
Peninsula. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair
of 1026 mb highs...one centered S of the Azores near 33N27W and
the other centered near 29N53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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