[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
603 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 01/0900 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Emily is inland
near 28.3N 80.1W or about 43 nm north-northeast of Vero Beach
Florida, moving east-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt
with gusts to 35 kt. Latest satellite imagery and NWS mosaic
Doppler radar show isolated moderate convection within 100 nm
south of the center. Emily is expected to produce additional
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across central and south Florida, with
isolated storm totals up to 4 inches possible. Emily is expected
to enter the Atlantic later this morning. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N29W
to 06N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model indicates broad troughing with this wave. This wave is
embedded in an extensive area of Saharan dry air and dust
inhibiting convection at this time. Isolated showers are observed
where the wave interacts with the monsoon trough south of 11N and
near 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N50W to
05N50W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan
Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave,
mainly north of 18N. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
07N-16N between 40W-55W.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from
18N74W to 08N74W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows
a large area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb
guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave.
The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust in the wave's
environment. Isolated showers are limited to the northern and
southernportions of the wave affecting Northern Colombia and the
Windward Passage at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near
18N16W to a 1012 mb surface low near 12N27W to 09N55W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main feature is Tropical Depression Emily, currently exiting
the Florida Peninsula. See the Special Features section above for
details. A surface trough extends over the eastern Gulf waters
from 27N83W to 26N90W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails south of
this surface feature supporting isolated moderate convection over
the southeast portion of the basin south of 26N and east of 88W.
Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle easterly flow across
the central and west Gulf while moderate to fresh cyclonic winds
prevail east of 85W. Expect Emily to continue moving east away
from the basin. Winds will weaken across the eastern Gulf as this
happens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean. See
the section above for details. Isolated moderate convection is
noted over western Cuba and surrounding waters. This activity is
supported by a diffluent flow aloft and the proximity of T.D.
Emily, currently centered near the east coast of Florida.
Scattered showers are noted south 15N between 76W-83W supported
by an upper-level low. Expect for tve and the
proximity of the monsoon trough to be the generators of weather
across the basin during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time as the
tropical wave is moving away from the area. Expect drier
conditions in 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic.
See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A stationary
front extends from 31N76W to 29N80W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 100 nm south of the front. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 33N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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