[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 42-hour forecast consists of a cold front whose position will
be 30N92W 26N94W 22N96W 19N96W. Expect NW-to-N gale force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within the area
that is bounded by 21.5N96.5W to 21.5N97W to 22N97.5W to
23.5N97.5W to 23.5N97W to 23N96.5W to 21.5N96.5W. Please refer to
the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. An upper level trough passes
through 32N14W to 25N25W and 17N30W. A cold front passes through
32N10W to 30N20W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near
27N25W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 28N northward between 13W and 24W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 18N northward between Africa and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections ofSierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W,
crossing the Equator along 36W, to 02S45W along the coast of
Brazil. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 04N to 09N
between 11W and 14W. Scattered moderate to strong from 01N to 05N
between 32W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong from 08N
southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 86W. High level moisture is covering
much of the Gulf of Mexico, except for some parts of the SE
corner.

A surface ridge is along 30N, from 74W in the Atlantic Ocean,
into the eastern sections of Texas.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, with areas of 1 to 3 miles at many of the platform
sites, and some smaller areas of 3 to 5 miles.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: mist and haze and 3 to 5 miles in the coastal plains.
LOUISIANA: mist and haze and 3 to 5 miles in some parts of the
coastal plains. FLORIDA: light rain in Milton. Mist and 5 miles
near Panama City and Perry.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving through much of the Caribbean
Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N southward
from 71W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
14N southward from 80W eastward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.76 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

The southernmost part of a middle level-to-upper level trough is
spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the island. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible, inland and in the
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling 1600
feet. Punta Cana: nearby rainshowers. VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a trough will be
moving across the area during the next 6 hours to 12 hours. NW
wind flow will move across the area during the rest of the 48-
hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows
that broad cyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that more
than one inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during the
next 48 hours. Expect periods of broad cyclonic wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
23N72W. A trough passes through 32N66W to the northern coastal
areas of Haiti. Convective precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate from 15N in the
Caribbean Sea,to 27N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 60W and 74W.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N52W, to
26N53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
16N northward between 50W and 60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between 30W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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