[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK,
for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until
28/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N gale in IRVING
and METEOR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to 01N25W,
03N30W, 02N37W, 03N45W, and 03N51W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 01N to 04N between 17W and 23W, and from 03N
to 04N between 40W and 43W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 06N
southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 24N northward between Florida and 87W. This cyclonic
wind flow is part of a larger-scale area of cyclonic wind flow
that spans the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida, the Bahamas, and
the Atlantic Ocean, from 24N northward between 70W in the Atlantic
Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba to the Bahamas
between 75W and 79W.

A cold front is along the Texas Gulf coast, set to move into the
NW sections of the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 6 hours or so.

Broad middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow spans the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from 28N79W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Florida, to 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Haze and 5 miles, in parts of the central Texas Gulf coast. Areas
of mist and haze, and from 1 to 3 miles, and from 3 to 5 miles,
in the western sections of the area. Mist and 1 to 2 miles to the
east of the SE coast of Louisiana.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOUISIANA and MISSISSIPPI: areas of rain and possible thunder in
SE Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. FLORIDA: light rain in
parts of the Panhandle. Mist and 3 to 5 miles in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
17N southward from 84W eastward. Upper level NW wind flow is
moving from Cuba to Hispaniola toward the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of the NW wind flow is associated with the
cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the Atlantic Ocean/
eastern Gulf of Mexico cyclonic wind flow, and associated with the
Atlantic Ocean 32N63W-to-12N59W trough. Upper level W wind flow
covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 20N between the Mona
Passage and 80W, and from 12N to 16N between 60W and 66W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the
island. Convective precipitation: earlier precipitation from six
hours ago has weakened and dissipated for the most part. Lingering
rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, inland and in the
surrounding coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. earlier nearby rainshowers have ended for the
moment. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago and Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that a mixture of W and SW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola during day one, of the 48-hour
forecast. Day two will consist of NW-to-W wind flow, on the SW
side of a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that
anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first
18 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect broad
cyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time, with one definite
inverted trough, and possibly a second inverted trough, during
the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N63W, to
26N60W 19N59W, to 12N59W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N25W, to
22N35W and 14N42W. and 09N53W. A surface trough passes through
32N24W to 27N27W. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 33W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken
low level clouds, from 18N northward between Africa and 44W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N
northward between 36W and 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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