[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 06N16W and 01N19W. The ITCZ continues from
01N19W, to the Equator along 20W, curving to 03S25W, to the
Equator along 40W, to 01S47W at the coast of Brazil. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 01N northward between 04W and
06W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 04N
between 36W and 46W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 06N
southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow spans the
entire Gulf of Mexico. A trough, from 600 mb to 800 mb, is along
the Texas coast. A shortwave middle level-to-upper level trough is
moving into the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from a 1011 mb high pressure center that
is near 25N85W, beyond SE Louisiana.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KMZG, KBQX, KEMK, KHQI, KGUL, KGRY, and KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from Beaumont/Port Arthur southward into the Lower
Valley, and from Conroe to the Houston metropolitan area including
surrounding smaller communities. LOUSIANA: MVFR in south central
coastal sections and in the southwestern corner in the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. from MISSISSIPPI to ALABAMA to FLORIDA:
VFR.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES,
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N73W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 24N69W, across Puerto Rico, into the Caribbean
Sea near 15N65W, into NE Venezuela. A cold front passes through
32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 27N73W. A dissipating cold front
continues from 27N73W, to the Bahamas near 23N77W. A pre-frontal
trough is along 29N69W 25N70W 21N72W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 18N northward between 60W and 70W.

Other convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N
to 20N between 62W and 78W, and from 12N to 14N between 56W in
the Atlantic Ocean and 63W in the Caribbean Sea.

No 24-hour rainfall totals are listed for the period that ended
at 26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow is moving across
the island. Hispaniola is on the eastern side of a trough that
extends from a South Carolina cyclonic circulation center to
Jamaica. Rain is being reported at some stations in Hispaniola.
Rainshowers are possible in the surrounding coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: rain with
thunder. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that westerly wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. It is possible that slight
changes in the wind direction will lead to SW or NW wind flow
also. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic
wind flow will move across the area during the first 30 hours or
so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect cyclonic wind flow with
an inverted trough, during the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N32W, to
24N38W 17N45W and 09N57W. A surface trough is along 31N24W to
27N28W. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
06N northward between Africa and 40W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds,
to the north of the line 12N60W 15N40W 22N20W 32N10W.

A cold front passes through 32N46W to 29N54W. A stationary front
continues from 29N54W beyond 32N60W. A surface ridge is to the
north of the frontal boundary. A second surface ridge is along
27N54W 21N42W 16N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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