[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 996 mb surface low is centered near 31N41W. A surface trough
extends from 30N33W to 25N34W to 19N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of 28N between 31W-43W. This
activity has become better organized since yesterday. Latest
scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force winds
prevailing mostly over the southern semicircle of the low center
north of 28N between 40W-46W. This system still has the
opportunity to become a subtropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone
on Thursday. Due to this, this system has a medium chance for
tropical formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WHO headers
TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from
05N10W to 00N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 00N17W to the South American coast near 00N47W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and south of these boundaries
between 10W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N72W
producing surface ridging that reaches the Gulf of Mexico along
30N. A surface trough was analyzed over the western Gulf from
28N95W to 24N95W. Another trough extends along the Yucatan
Peninsula's coast from 22N89W to 19N91W. Cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection are present near the troughs and over the
west and southern portions of the basin. This activity is
supported by a diffluent flow aloft just east of an upper-level
trough/low that extends its axis along 97W. Scatterometer data
depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin
with locally fresh easterly winds prevailing south of 24N. Expect
a similar weather pattern during the next 24 hours as the upper-
level low continues moving east across the western Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper-level trough/low that prevails over the western Gulf of
Mexico is also enhancing convection across the western Caribbean
as a diffluent flow prevails west of 77W. This activity is
affecting portions of the Yucatan Channel, Central America, Cuba,
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of an upper-level ridge with axis along 70W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds across the
basin with the strongest winds along the coast of Colombia.
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness prevails across the island at this time. Expect over
the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect over the island
from the east with the tradewind flow. Convection will also form
due to local instability.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the west Atlantic near 31N72W,
with its ridge extending to 57W. A 996 mb surface low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 31N42W. Please refer to the Special
Features section above for more details. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin. Expect over the next 24 hours
for the Special Feature's low to move northeast away from the area.
Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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