[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A storm low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W.
Over forecast waters, gale force winds are N of 29N between 45W-
53W. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale this evening.
Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
06N11W and continues to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 03N20W to 00N35W to 1S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the Monsoon Trough from 03N-05N between 08W-
15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from
01S-04N between 37W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W
producing surface ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt E to
SE flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. An embedded surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche
from 21N94W to 17N93W. The trough is void of precipitation.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows isolated showers over the SE Gulf
to include the Straits of Florida. More scattered showers are
inland over S Louisiana, and Along the Texas coast W of 95W. In
the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the Gulf with axis along
80W. Upper level moisture is over most of the Gulf. Expect over
the next 24 hours for showers to increase over the Straits of
Florida, and along the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Gulf of Honduras, and the strongest winds along
the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is inland
over NW Colombia, and along the coast of Panama. Scattered
showers are over most of the Caribbean except over the NW
Caribbean near the Cayman Islands where mostly fair weather is
noted. Radar imagery confirms scattered showers over and around
Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland E Nicaragua,
and Belize. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is over the
Caribbean Sea with axis along 75W. Broken high clouds covers the
central and E Caribbean. Strong subsidence is over portions of the
NW Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over the island. Expect over the
next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over the
island from the east with the tradewind flow.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. A
storm low is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N46W. See
above. An associated cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N37W to 23N40W to 17N50W to 17N60W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is N of 26N between 34W-37W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A small 1010 mb low
is centered S of the Canary Islands near 27N14W. Of note in the
upper levels, a large upper level low is centered directly over
the storm low resulting in low upper level pressure N of 20N
between 30W-60W. Expect the over the next 24 hours for the storm
low surface center to drift SE to 32N44W with convection. Also
expect the Atlantic front to drift E to 35W and produce
convection over the Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-35W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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