[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Strong high pressure over the west Atlantic behind a cold front
extending from 30N51W to 25N60W to 24N70W is supporting near to gale
force winds N of 30N within 180 nm E of the front with seas to 11
ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale by Sunday night. Please
refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
06N11W and continues to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 03N20W to 02N40W to 1N50W. Isolated showers are
within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ and S of the Monsoon
Trough.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1030 mb high over NW
Atlc waters continue to extend a ridge axis SW across the Florida
peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly-southeasterly flow across the basin according to latest
surface and scatterometer data. Water vapor imagery show middle to
upper level dry air across almost the entire basin and a short-wave
trough on the northeast gulf. A thermal trough is in the Yucatan
peninsula, however no showers are associated with it at the time.
No major changes are expected through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the west
Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia supports fresh
to near gale-force winds from 10N to 15N between 69W and 78W.
This synoptic pattern is expected to continue through Monday.
Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery continue to show very stable
conditions over the western Caribbean while SW winds aloft advects
moisture from South America to the eastern basin. Moisture is
also being advected from the tropical Atlc waters to the NE
Caribbean by SE flow associated with an area of low pressure in
the Central Atlc waters. All this moisture may induce the
development of showers mainly over the NE basin where the
moisture is converging. Shower activity for this region and
Hispaniola is expected through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low and upper level dry air is across the majority of the Island
supporting fair weather tonight. Some cloudiness are observed in
the SE portion of Hispaniola due to middle level moisture being
advected by SW flow. This moisture along with trailing moisture
associated with the passage of a cold front to the north will
support the development of showers over the Island and adjacent
waters today and possibly Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1002 mb center of low pressure N of
the area near 34N50W and continues along 30N51W to 25N60W to
24N70W. Strong pressure behind the front tightens the gradient and
support near to gale force winds N of 30N. See the special
features section for further details. Otherwise, a stationary
front continues to weaken over NE Atlc waters from 30N23W to
24N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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