[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The 12-hour forecast consists of a low pressure center that will
be to the N of the area. A cold front will extend from 31N46W to
25N49W to 19N56W. Expect S gale-force winds and sea heights
ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, to the N of 30N within 180 nm to
the east of the front. Expect W-to-NW gale-force winds, and sea
heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, to the N of 30N between
48W and 54W. Gale-force winds are forecast to be present also at
24 hours and at 48 hours. Please refer to the high seas forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N11W. The ITCZ continues from 02N11W, to 01N20W
01N30W, to the Equator along 38W, to the coast of Brazil near the
Equator along 48W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
within a 30 nm radius of 01N07W. Isolated moderate from 05N
southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the coastal
border of Mississippi and Alabama to the Florida Keys. Upper level
ridges are on either side of the trough. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from the Louisiana coast near 29N92W to 27N89W 25N85W,
and to the coast of Cuba near 23N83W. wwidely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 23N to the coast between 85W and 92W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of
Mexico near 21N97W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVQT, KIKT, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR in Weslaco, Rockport. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Baton Rouge.
Earlier heavy rain that was near Slidell a few hours ago has ended
for the moment. VFR elsewhere. MISSISSIPPI: Earlier heavy rain
that was near Natchez a few hours ago has ended for the moment.
MVFR in Bay St. Louis and Gulfport. ALABAMA: towering cumulus
clouds in parts of Mobile. VFR elsewhere. FLORIDA: MVFR in
Pensacola. Smoke is being observed in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area that is to the east of
the line that runs from the central part of Belize beyond SE
Cuba. Middle level to upper level westerly wind flow covers the
rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Rainshowers are possible, in the Caribbean Sea, in scattered to
broken low level clouds, from 13N to the Greater Antilles between
60W and 70W, to the SW of the line that runs from the coast of
Haiti near 18N74W, to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W, and from
Honduras northward from 83W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 15/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, 0.24 in Guadeloupe,
0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.03 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
and a trace in Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 2200 feet. Puerto
Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that broad SW wind flow
will cover the area for the entire time. A trough ends up to the
west of Hispaniola at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that day one will start with
SW wind flow for the first 6 hours to 12 hours, changing to W wind
flow for the rest of day one. Expect W wind flow during day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind
flow will be moving across Hispaniola. A ridge will extend from
the east central Caribbean Sea islands to Hispaniola during the
next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N56W to 26N55W and 21N61W.
A cold front passes through 32N54W to 28N60W and 26N70W. A surface
trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near
31N52W, to 27N54W and 24N58W. A weakening 1014 mb low pressure
center is near 22N63W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 25N northward between 45W and
50W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N to 25N between
45W and 60W, and from 20N northward between 60W and 80W.

A middle level to upper level eastern Atlantic Ocean trough
passes through 32N25W to 23N28W and 18N31W. A stationary front
passes through 32N23W, to 28N25W, and 25N29W. A surface trough is
along 27N22W 20N20W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward between Africa and 40W.

A surface ridge is along 09N46W, to 24N40W, beyond a 1019 mb high
pressure center that is near 33N39W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W
westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net