[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N68W with an
occluded front north of the low from 28N63W to 28N60W to 26N71W.
Gale force east to northeast winds are just north of the occluded
front with seas to 13 ft. Gale force winds are forecast until
13/1200 UTC. Please see the latest high seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast near
12N16W to 06N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 06N24W to 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is south of
05N between 13W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
south of 03N between 37W and 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near the mouth of the
Mississippi River supporting light winds over the north central
Gulf and moderate to locally fresh winds over the remainder of
the Gulf. A thermal trough is over the Bay of Campeche extending
from 22N91W to 18N92W. No convection is noted with this trough.
Scattered showers are over the southeastern Gulf in low level
moisture. Over the next 24 hours the area of high pressure will
slide eastward, with easterly winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt
across most of the Gulf basin by this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region supports moderate to fresh
easterly trades over the central and western Caribbean basin this
morning. The only exceptions are locally strong winds along the
northwestern coast of Colombia, the Lee of Cuba, and the Windward
Passage. These strong winds will decrease during the day today,
and will then pulse back to strong tonight. A surface trough
extends from western Atlantic low pressure and across Puerto
Rico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are across Puerto Rico,
and the Virgin Islands. The low and trough are helping to disrupt
the trade wind flow over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to
light winds over this portion of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry conditions are across the island this morning. Expect
only isolated showers during the daytime today as drier air has
made its way over the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends into the area of discussion near 31N37W to
28N42W where it transitions to a stationary front to 27N55W to
28N63W, then transitions again to an occluded front to 28N67W to
26N71W. A 1012 mb low is centered south of the occluded front
near 26N68W with a surface trough extending from the low to
23N65W to Puerto Rico. Gale force winds are occurring to the
north of the low center, mainly just north of the occluded front.
Please see the special features section for more details.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are from 25N to 29N
between 65W and 70W, within 360 nm east of the surface trough,
and within 240 nm south of the stationary front west of 55W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of either side of the
stationary front. A 1023 mb high centered near 29N21W dominates
the remainder of the central Atlantic and the eastern Atlantic.
Over the next 24 hours the low will meander over the same area
with showers and thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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