[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
110 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
at 08N12W to 06N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 06N15W to 03S33W to the South American coast near 01S46W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from
01S to 06N between 16W and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 01N between 36W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic ridges west-
southwestward along the Northern Gulf Coast. Moderate to locally
fresh east to southeast winds are observed south of the ridge
across most of the gulf basin this morning, except for light winds
near a weak surface trough in the vicinity of the Florida Big
Bend. Fresh to strong winds are evident over the SE Gulf, in the
vicinity of a surface trough over the central Bay of Campeche,
and over the Straits of Florida. Deep layer ridging extends
northeastward over the Gulf from the Yucatan Peninsula to the
Florida Big Bend. The subsident environment beneath the ridge will
inhibit convection over the Gulf through Wednesday. The ridge to
the north will keep the front over Texas at bay and maintain
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf. A thermal
trough is expected to form each afternoon over the Yucatan
peninsula, then move west over the bay of Campeche each day during
the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can be expected each
night along the NW coast of the Yucatan as the trough emerges from
the peninsula. Fresh to strong winds over the Straits of Florida
will slacken tonight through Thursday as the ridge to the north
weakens in response to low pressure moving eastward over the
northeastern United States.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough of low pressure extending northward from 14N70W through
the Mona Passage into the Atlantic is weakening the ridge to the
north of the Caribbean. Winds across the basin are generally
moderate, except for fresh to strong winds off the NW Colombia
coast and to the lee of the Mona and Windward passages. This
general pattern will continue for the next couple of days as
developing low pressure within the trough weakens the ridge and
the tighter pressure gradient on the west side of the trough
generates gap winds through the Windward Passage and south of
Cuba. A broad upper-level trough extends southward over the
Caribbean from Hispaniola. Convergent flow in the vicinity of the
trough will inhibit convection through Wednesday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Convergent low-level flow associated with a surface trough that
currently extends northward through the Mona Passage has shifted
to the east of Hispaniola. This, combined with convergent upper-
level winds will maintain a relatively dry trade-wind pattern for
the next couple of days with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers prevailing.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends WSW from 32N50W to 27N67W, then
continues as a weakening stationary front to near 26N71W. A
surface trough reaches north from the Mona Passage to 24N65W to
27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 28N to 32N
between 59W and 66W. High pressure of 1024 mb centered near
32N43W resides over the central Atlantic. A weakening surface
trough extends SW from 32N19W to 26N27W. No significant convection
is associated with this trough. Over the next 24 hours showers
and thunderstorms will continue along and north of the frontal
boundary as the front transitions into a frontal trough by Tuesday
night, then develops into a broad area of low pressure on
Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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