[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
01N22W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 01N to 06N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 26W-43W...and S of 03N
between 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon with a ridge at the surface providing overall fair
conditions and mostly clear skies. The ridge is anchored by a 1023
mb high centered offshore of the Carolinas near 34N78W with mostly
gentle to moderate E-SE winds E of 90W and moderate to occasional
fresh S-SE winds W of 90W. This wind profile across the basin is
expected to increase slightly Sunday night into Monday as the
overall pressure gradient strengthens...however will relax once
again by Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary skirts the coastal
plains and SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the
western Caribbean supporting a weak stationary front analyzed
across the Windward Passage region. Isolated showers remain N of
Hispaniola...however a small area is noted on satellite imagery
within the southern adjacent coastal waters of the island N of
17N between 70W-74W. Isolated showers are also possible across
eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage region this afternoon and
evening. The remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively
tranquil conditions with only a few passing isolated showers
occurring across and E of the Lesser Antilles from 14N-21N
between 60W- 63W...and gentle to moderate trades. Occasional
fresh trades are expected within close proximity to the coast of
Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island this afternoon
with isolated shower activity occurring within the northern
adjacent coastal waters...and southern portions of the island and
adjacent coastal waters from 17N-19N between 70W-74W. This area
lies to the SE of a stationary front extending from across the
Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage region near
19N76W. The front will linger across the region this evening and
become diffuse overnight into Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from north of the
discussion area near 42N65W S-SW through 32N72W to a broad base
over the Florida Straits near 25N81W. This troughing supports a
stationary front analyzed from 32N60W to 21N71W and into the
Windward Passage region. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
within 120 nm either side of the front. To the W...a surface ridge
continues building into the SW North Atlc anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered offshore of the Carolinas near 34N78W. Farther
east...surface ridging also prevails across the central Atlc with
a ridge axis extending from 32N47W to 16N56W. Embedded within the
southern periphery of this ridging a 1015 mb low is centered near
25N36W with a dissipating stationary front extending E-NE to 27N30W
to 31N22W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 23N-28N
between 30W-38W in association with the surface low. Support for
this surface low is provided by a middle to upper level low
nearly collocated at 24N36W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1018 mb high centered near 26N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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