[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N08W to
03N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N13W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03S-05N between the Prime
Meridian and 05W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-7N
between 07W-15W, and from 5S-5N between 25W-34W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03S-4N between 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida
near 30N84W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W. A
warm front continues to 27N93W to SW Louisiana near 30N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is over N Florida, and the NE Gulf
N of 29N between 80W-85W. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered
over the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the low. The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt S flow E of the
cold front with the strongest winds over the Yucatan Channel. In
the upper levels, a slight trough is over the Gulf with axis along
90W. Upper level moisture is over N Florida, and the Yucatan
Channel. Strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect in 24 hours for
the tail end of the front to extend over N Florida and the far NE
Gulf with showers. Also expect a new and stronger cold front to
be along the coast of Texas Wednesday morning with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is the Yucatan
Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are over
Hispaniola, and the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Mostly fair weather is
over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the Caribbean with axis along 75W. Upper level moisture
is over the Yucatan Peninsula, and the SW Caribbean, while strong
subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect little
change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are presently over Hispaniola. Very strong
subsidence is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect
low level scattered showers, embedded in the tradewind flow, to
continue over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N65W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 26N50W to
21N60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 41W-45W.
Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the remainder of the
front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 42N20W with
surface ridging extending to 25N35W. Expect the central Atlantic
cold front to move E and reach 31N38W in 24 hours with showers.
Also expect pre-frontal showers to be over the N Florida Atlantic
coast due to the tail end of a front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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