[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N16W to 04N26W to the Equator near 36W. Scattered to numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is from 04N-09N between
the Prime Meridian and 12W. Isolated moderate convection is S of
04N between 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A negatively tilted middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over the mid-Mississippi River valley this evening
supporting a cold front that enters the Gulf near 29N90W then
extends SW to the east-central Mexico coast near 22N98W. The front
itself remains nearly precipitation-free at this time...however a
squall line of scattered to broken showers and tstms extends
across the Florida panhandle from 31N85W to 29N88W. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds are occurring E of the front while light to
gentle anticyclonic flow is noted W of the front. The front is
forecast to stall and weaken across the central waters through the
overnight into early Tuesday. Moderate to occasional fresh
southerly flow will re-establish across the basin Tuesday into
Wednesday as another area of low pressure develops across the
southern Plains. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf waters by early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across much of the
Caribbean this evening as dry and stable W-SW flow continues over
the basin. At the surface...the only area of ongoing convection
is noted on satellite imagery across portions of Central America
and the adjacent coastal waters S of 17N between 83W-85W.
Otherwise...fresh to occasional strong trades persist across the
basin as high pressure remains anchored to the N across the SW
North Atlc. Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during
the late night and early morning hours within close proximity to
the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected
to persist through the next few days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Relatively fair weather is currently prevailing across the island
this evening. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an
overall stable environment. Mostly dry conditions are expected
during the next few days...however an isolated shower is possible
during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak
daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across
interior portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered across the western North
Atlc in the vicinity of 45N53W that supports a cold front
extending into the discussion area near 32N47W. The front extends
SW to 28N50W to 23N60W then dissipates to 23N68W. Isolated
showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 27N within
90 nm either side of the front. Two pre-frontal surface troughs
are noted SE of the cold front...one from 22N49W to 26N48W and the
other from 19N59W to 23N55W. The front will continue moving
eastward through Tuesday night and produce fresh to strong winds
remaining mainly N of 30N between 37W-52W. The remainder of the SW
North Atlc region is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 33N70W. The high
continues drifting southeastward and is forecast to provide
overall fair conditions for much of the SW North Atlc through
Tuesday. Southerly winds are forecast to increase N of 29N W of
75W as the high shifts SE and a developing area of low pressure
moves off the mid-Atlc coast by Tuesday night. Farther east...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered NE of the
Azores near 41N20W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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