[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near
09N13W to 05N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
05N20W to 03N31W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is within 120 nm north of the axis west of 43W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed within 60 nm north and 180 nm
south of the axis between 21W-27W. Similar convection is within
60 nm north of the axis between 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A rather vigorous and fast moving upper-level trough extends from
eastern Oklahoma south to the far north-central Gulf. A well noted
area of diffluent flow aloft is supporting an intense batch of
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 28N
between 85W and 89W. This convection is along a squall line racing
out ahead of the front. Latest available lightning data indicates
frequent strikes with this activity as it rapidly moves eastward.
The trough supports a cold front associated with deep low
pressure centered over eastern Oklahoma. The front enters the
discussion area through south-central Louisiana, and continues to
26N93W to between Veracruz and Tampico. Very strong subsidence
aloft is keeping moisture along the front to a very minimum. The
moisture noted is that with over the far north-central portion
east of the front with the squall line. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are over the eastern section of the Gulf, except
over the northern part east of the front and squall line where
fresh to strong winds are occurring in a tighter gradient there.
Satellite imagery and surface observations along the southeast
coast of Mexico reveal that a large swath of smoke/haze is being
ushered across much of the southwestern and central Gulf in the
southerly flow ahead of the front. Visibilities may be lower in
some locations of these areas.

Gentle to moderate northerly winds are occurring in wake of the
front. These conditions will continue through the next 48 hours.
The front is forecast to stall from the western Florida panhandle
to near Veracruz by this evening, and lift back to the north as a
warm front through late Tuesday. Gentle to moderate southerly flow
will re-establish itself across the basin late Tuesday/Wednesday
as another area of low pressure develops across the southern
Plains. Presently, model guidance suggests that front associated
with this new low pressure will be stronger than the current one
with strong northerly winds following in behind it as it quickly
moves off the Texas coast on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across the basin as dry
and stable southwest flow continues over the area. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to occasional strong trades across the basin
as high pressure remains anchored to the north across the west
Atlantic. Isolated weak showers are seen over the northeast
portion of the sea from cloud streamers pushing westward across
the Leeward Islands from the central Atlantic waters with the
source of this moisture being an old decaying frontal boundary
located roughly about 240-530 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Slightly stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late
night and early morning hours within close proximity to the coast
of Colombia. Little change is expected through the next few days.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is currently prevailing across the island. Dry
westerly flow aloft is also providing for an overall stable
environment. These conditions will continue through the next few
days, however, an isolated shower is possible during the late
afternoon and early evening hours given peak daytime heating and
instability along with orographic lift across interior portions
of Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low well north of the area supports a cold
front that enters the area through 32N49W, and continues to
27N55W to 24N62W where it becomes fractured to near 24N70W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 to 180 nm east of
the front north of 28N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are seen elsewhere within 90 nm southeast of the front from
25N to 28N. Visible satellite imagery shows an extensive area of
stratocumulus clouds advecting south and southeastward behind the
front east of 67W. Isolated showers are possible with these
clouds. A surface trough extends over the east Atlantic from
32N30W to 24N38W. Isolated showers and short-lived thunderstorms
are possible within 60 nm east of the trough. Another surface
trough extends from near 27N48W to 22N50W. A small cyclonic swirl,
about 60 nm in diameter, is noted on the trough near 24N48W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the swirl
in the southeast quadrant, Isolated showers are elsewhere from 24N
to 27N between 45W and 49W. A weakening surface trough, remnants
of a previous frontal boundary, is along a position from near
24N55W to 19N60W. Isolated showers are noted from 20N to 23N
between 53W and 57W. In addition, other isolated showers have spun
off the the trough within narrow lines of low clouds from 16N to
19N west of 57W to the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. The first
mentioned surface trough is forecast to weaken through the next
24-30 hours, with its remnants being absorbed into the previously
described cold front. The second surface trough will gradually
dissipate through Tuesday. Otherwise,a surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered north of the area near 38N19W. Another high center of
1022 mb north of the area near 35N73W is forecast to shift
southeastward to near 31N64W by early on Tuesday as the cold front
reaches a position from near 32N42W to 25N48W to 22N60W. High
pressure ridging associated with the 1022 mb high will build
across the area in the wake of the front through Wednesday as the
parent high shifts east-southeastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net