[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022227
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to
05N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N23W to the Equator near 29W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 06N between 12W-17W...and S of 03N between
22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A vigorous middle to upper level low is centered over Texas and
the Rio Grande River valley this evening supporting a complex
area of low pressure across eastern Texas focused primarily on a
1003 mb low centered 31N98W. The associated cold front extends
from the low into NE Mexico near 26N100W. Most of the active
convection associated with this system is currently occurring
across interior portions of the lower Mississippi River valley
remaining generally N of 30N. Across the Gulf waters...moderate to
fresh southernly flow prevails which is expected to increase into
occasional strong breeze levels overnight across the central Gulf.
The front will emerge off the coast by Monday with a brief period
of gentle to moderate northerly wind occurring in wake of the
front and then begin to stall across the central waters by Monday
night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will re-establish itself
across the basin Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops
across the southern Plains. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the NW Gulf waters by early Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Relatively tranquil conditions prevail across much of the
Caribbean this evening as dry and stable W-SW flow continues over
the basin. At the surface...the only area of active deep
convection is noted on satellite imagery across the SW waters S of
13N between 79W-85W...including interior portions of Panama...
Costa Rica...and southern Nicaragua. Otherwise...fresh to
occasional strong trades persist across the basin as high pressure
remains anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc. Slightly
stronger winds are expected to pulse during the late night and
early morning hours within close proximity to the coast of
Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected through the
next few days.

...HISPANIOLA...
Relatively fair weather is currently prevailing across the island
this evening. Dry westerly flow aloft is also providing for an
overall stable environment. Mostly dry conditions are expected
during the next few days...however an isolated shower is possible
during the late afternoon and early evening hours given peak
daytime heating and instability along with orographic lift across
interior portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered across the western North
Atlc in the vicinity of 41N60W that supports a cold front
extending into the discussion area near 32N57W. The front extends
SW to 27N65W to 26N74W. Isolated showers and possible isolated
tstms are occurring N of 29N between 53W-58W...and elsewhere E of
66W within 60 nm either side of the boundary. By Tuesday night the
front will be impacting the central Atlc with fresh to strong
winds remaining mainly N of 31N between 37W-45W. A 1023 mb high
centered across Virginia near 37N78W will move SE as the low
pushes eastward and provide overall fair conditions for much of
the SW North Atlc through Monday night. Southerly winds are
forecast to increase N of 29N W of 75W as the high shifts SE and a
developing area of low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc coast by
Tuesday. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1019 mb high centered near 26N47W. Another ridge is anchored
between the Iberian peninsula and the Azores. Between the
ridging...a weakening stationary front is analyzed from 32N30W SW
to 22N40W to 19N46W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm
either side of the front. The front is expected to fully dissipate
by Monday afternoon with surface ridging prevailing thereafter.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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