[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Matthew at 29/1500 UTC is centered near 14.2N
66.3W or about 252 NM south of San Juan Puerto Rico, moving west
at 13 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 60 KT with gusts to 75 KT.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed from 10N-19N
between 59W-68W and another area of scattered moderate convection
is south of 14N between 68W-73W. Matthew is forecast to become a
hurricane within the next 24 hours. Please refer to the NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers WTNT24 KNHC/TCMAT4, or
visit the NHC website at http://hurricanes.gov for additional
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending its axis from
18N25W to 08N26W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours
according to satellite and global model guidance. Abundant
moisture and a diffluent wind environment at the middle and upper
levels support scattered moderate convection from 12N-19N between
20W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic with axis from 14N35W
to 10N35W, moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Latest TPW
imagery show dry air in the northern portion of the wave that
along dust explains the lack of convection at the time. Isolated
showers are observed ahead of the wave's axis and along and south
of 14N between 34W-42W.

A tropical wave is in the Central Atlantic with axis from 14N36W
to a 1011 mb low near 10N47W to 05N47W, moving west at 15 kt over
the next 24 hours. The convection observed around these features
is mostly related to the proximity of the ITCZ which has scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms south of 12N between 41W-50W.

A weak tropical wave is in the west Caribbean extending its axis
from 19N87W to EPAC near 10N89W, moving west at 15 KT over the
past 24 hours. TPW imagery depicts moderate moisture prevailing
across the northern portion of the wave but despite this, no
significant convection is observed with this wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends over Africa reaching the east Atlantic
near 14N17W through 08N33W. The ITCZ begins near 08N33W to 07N59W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is south of 12N between 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern portion of the basin from
27N97W to 30N85W. Isolated showers are observed along this boundary.
To the south; a diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate
convection with a surface trough extending over the Bay of Campeche
from 26N96W to 20N95W. The convection is from 21N-26N and west of
93W. Isolated showers prevail across the remainder of the basin
east of 89W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle northwesterly
winds across the basin. Expect for the cold front to continue moving
south across the basin during the next 24 hours. Convection will
prevail ahead of this boundary affecting the southern Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature of concern in the Caribbean is T.S. Matthew
located south of Puerto Rico. Please refer to the section above
for details. An upper-level trough extends across the Florida
Peninsula reaching the west Caribbean waters west of 80W.
Scattered showers are observed south of 16N between 80W-84W
affecting portions of Nicaragua and Honduras as well as their
adjacent waters. Isolated showers are observed south of 10N
between 78W-82W due to the proximity of the EPAC Monsoon Trough.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeasterly winds
across the basin west of 70W. Expect for Matthew to become a
hurricane within the next 24 hours. This system will continue
moving west through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. T.S. Matthew is forecast
to move south of Hispaniola as a hurricane by Friday through
Sunday. Cloudiness associated with this system is expected to
spread over the island today with an increase in showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into Friday. The heaviest rain is
expected Sunday, especially over the western portion of the
island. For additional information on Matthew, please refer to
the special features section above.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A broad mid-level trough extends
across the southeast CONUS and covers the west Atlantic waters W
of 76W, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between
70W-80W. The remainder basin is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1036 mb high in the north central Atlantic near
41N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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