[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170622
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia was downgraded to Tropical Depression at
17/0300 UTC. Tropical Depression Julia is centered near 30.2N
76.3W at 17/0300 UTC or about 240 nm south-southeast of Cape
Fear, North Carolina moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for
more details. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-31N between 69W-74W.

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 18.5N 37.0W at 17/0300 UTC
or about 760 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and
about 1415 nm east of the Leeward Islands moving west at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please see the latest
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm of the center over the northeast
quadrant.

Near gale-force winds are forecast for the area of Agadir.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave just off the coast of west Africa extends from
18N16W through a 1009 mb low near 13N19W to 7N19W moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a global
model 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture
as shown on the Total Precipitable water imagery. Numerous
strong convection is within 45 nm of a line from 15N19W to just
inland over Africa near 17N16W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection dot the area within 90 nm either
side of the wave axis north of 10N. This low/wave could be bring
rain and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
during the next couple of days.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
54W/55W from 10N-21N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is along the leading edge of a global model 700 mb
trough. No associated showers or deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

Monsoon trough is analyzed from 8N21W 7N28W to 7N34W. The ITCZ
is analyzed from 9N43W to 11N54W then resumes near 11N57W to
over Trinidad. Small clusters of scattered moderate
convection are within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge dominates the Gulf tonight anchored near 27N91W
and extending a upper ridge axis southwest over Mexico near
Tuxpan and northeast over the CONUS to over New England and the
Great Lakes. At the surface, a surface ridge extends from along
the eastern seaboard over the northeast Gulf to 23N93W. A mid
level low is centered over the northwest Gulf with a 1010 mb low
is analyzed along the coast of Texas near 28N95W. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of
a line from 24N95W to 27N92W and north of 27N to over the north
Gulf coast between 87W-94W. Evening scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that developed inland over the Florida
peninsula have moved into the Gulf waters within 90 nm along the
coast from the Florida Keys to the Big Bend Area. The diurnal
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the east
Bay of Campeche south of 21N east of 93W to inland over the
Yucatan. The 1010 mb low is expected to move inland over Texas
tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cutoff upper low is over the northeast Caribbean near 20N82W
extending an upper trough southwest to the coast of Honduras and
northeast to across Cuba. This is generating scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm of a line from
over Cuba near 21N78W to 26N82W and within 60 nm along the coast
of Honduras. An upper ridge covers the central Caribbean
anchored near southwest Haiti and covers most of the remainder
of the Caribbean with the exception of the far northeast
Caribbean. A second upper low is over the far northeast
Caribbean centered east of the northern Leeward Islands near
18N61W supporting a surface trough that extends from 21N59W
across the Lesser Antilles near between Dominica and Martinique
to 14N62W generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 75/90 nm either side of the surface trough.
The remainder of the Caribbean is under clear skies tonight.
Strong winds will develop near the coast of Colombia during the
overnight hours through Sunday night. A tropical wave will enter
the east Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper ridge covers Hispaniola anchored near southwest Haiti.
This is giving the island clear skies tonight. Fair weather is
expected across the island through Sunday night as the upper
ridge remains. The tropical wave that will enter the Caribbean
Saturday night will reach the island Sunday night into Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Primary features of concern are Tropical Storms Karl in the
central Atlantic and Tropical Depression Julia off the
southeast CONUS. See Special Features above. A small upper low
is over the Bahama Islands near 25N76W. A surface trough is
analyzed from 30N58W to 22N64W generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm west of the surface trough
from 26N-28N. An upper ridge anchored near 25N68W with an upper
low centered near 21N53W is creating a diffluent environment to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N-
32N between 54W-59W. The upper low is generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 21N-24N between 49W-52W.
The east Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a
1030 mb high northeast of the Azores. Tropical Depression Julia
is expected to move slowly northwest through Sunday then turn
northeast Sunday night as a remnant low. Tropical Storm Karl is
expected to move west through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net