[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140603 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 14/0600 UTC is near 30.5N
81.8W, or about 13 nm to the NNW of Jacksonville, Florida, and
46 nm to the SSW of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is moving north-
northwestward, or 340 degrees, 7 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1011 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong from 29N to 32N between 77W and the
coasts of Georgia and Florida. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 14/0300 UTC is near 27.6N
52.8W. Ian is moving north-northwestward, or 345 degrees, 11
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55
knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 150 nm
to 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N22W. The low center is
along a tropical wave that is between 20W and 22W from 20N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong from 14N to 17N between 23W and 25W, in parts of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 20N
southward. Convective precipitation: any precipitation
is embedded in the monsoon trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania and Senegal near 16N17W, to a 1009 mb low pressure
center that is near 15N22W, to 14N31W, to 07N38W, and to 09N39W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong within 90 nm on either side of 12N24W
11N31W 08N42W 07N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, from
90W eastward, with a trough. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 90W westward.
A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 26N90W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 90W eastward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGRY and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...from TEXAS
to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in Brooksville.
light rain at the St. Pete/Clearwater International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the
Caribbean Sea, that is to the east of the line that runs from
Haiti, toward the coastal border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.
The cyclonic wind flow has to do with the Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea trough that is along 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to
15N74W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N
northward between 70W and 80W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.28 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe and in Bermuda.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W 11N80W, beyond northwestern
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 100 nm of the coast of Colombia from 13N southward.
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 14N between
80W and 84W, off the coast of Nicaragua, and inland in
Nicaragua.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N67W, across
Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean Sea, and into the
southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N northward between 70W
and 80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in Port-au-
Prince in Haiti: VFR/no ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds.
in the Dominican Republic: Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few
cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceilings. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few
cumulonimbus clouds in Puerto Plata.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current
cyclonic wind flow and trough will cover the area for most of
the day one, followed by SW wind flow. More SW wind flow will
continue for day two. A ridge will be to the south of the
Dominican Republic at the end of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during day one, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge.
Anticyclonic wind flow will move across Hispaniola for day two.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows easterly wind flow will
be moving across the area during the next 48 hours, with a large-
scale Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea ridge. It is possible that
there may be some variations in the easterly wind flow, such
as NE-to-E and E-to-SE, during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

from 20N northward to the west of the 29N56W-to-Hispaniola upper
level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper
level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N56W cyclonic circulation
center, to 22N67W, across Hispaniola, to 15N74W in the Caribbean
Sea, into the southwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward between 58W and 75W. Isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 70W and 80W.

An upper level trough is along 24N28W 16N36W 14N40W 11N45W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N to
27N between 18W and 45W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward between Africa and 50W. A 1024 mb high
pressure center is near 33N41W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 80W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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