[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 13/0900 UTC is near 24.0N
51.7W. Ian is moving north-northwestward, or 335 degrees, 8
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50
knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 100 nm
to 250 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 12N20W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 11N to 13N between 19W
and 21W, and from 14N to 16N between 21W and 23W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 15N
southward. Convective precipitation: embedded in the monsoon
trough.

A tropical wave is along 90W/91W, from 21N in the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, just to the west of the Yucatan
Peninsula, southward. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong in northwestern Guatemala and
neighboring Mexico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 15N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is
near 12N20W, to 12N31W, to 07N38W, and to 06N45W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 150 nm to 250 nm on either side of 14N17W 10N30W 04N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving into the eastern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire
area. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 24N89W. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 91W eastward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KGRY, KEIR, KSPR, KVOA, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...TEXAS: rain
and thunder have ended near Galveston. light rain in Pearland.
MVFR in Victoria and Palacios. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Port Fourchon.
MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. ALABAMA and FLORIDA: VFR/no
ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
that is from 80W eastward. Much of the cyclonic wind flow has to
do with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough that is along
23N61W, across Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, and
to 12N78W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate in the
Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 67W and 76W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.31 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

The monsoon trough is along 11N between 73W in northern Colombia
and 82W, beyond southeastern Nicaragua. Convective
precipitation: Possible rainshowers in remnant debris clouds,
that are from 13N southward from 73W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the island. An upper level
trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 23N61W, across
Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, and to 12N78W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea
from 15N northward between 67W and 76W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds in Santo Domingo. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that
cyclonic wind flow and a trough will cover the area for most of
the next 48 hours. SW wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during the last 12 hours or so, as the trough slides westward
into the Windward Passage. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that easterly wind flow will move across Hispaniola during
the next 48 hours. The easterly wind flow is related to large-
scale anticyclonic wind flow, from the Atlantic Ocean, into
parts of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB
shows that NE-to-E wind flow will be moving across the area
during the next 48 hours, with a large-scale Atlantic Ocean-to-
Caribbean Sea ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

from 20N northward to the west of the 32N56W-to-Hispaniola upper
level trough: Upper level NE wind flow is merging with upper
level anticyclonic wind flow, in this area. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward 60W and 78W.

A surface trough runs from northeastern Florida, to a 1012 mb
low pressure center that is along the Florida coast about 30 nm
to the northeast of Lake Okeechobee, to 24N79W. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong from 25N to 31N between 77W and
the coast of Florida and southern Georgia. Significant
development of this system is unlikely since the low is expected
to move inland into the central and northern sections of the
Florida peninsula through tonight. It is likely that locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds may continue in the northwestern
Bahamas during the morning today, and then spread across parts
of the Florida peninsula later today.

An upper level trough extends from 32N56W, to an upper level
cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N58W, to 23N61W,
across Hispaniola, to 16N73W in the Caribbean Sea, to 12N78W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 20N northward
between 57W and 74W. Isolated moderate in the Caribbean Sea from
15N northward between 67W and 76W.

An upper level trough extends from a 30N14W cyclonic circulation
center, across the Canary Islands, to 20N27W and 15N34W.
Convective precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between Africa and 45W. A 1021 mb high
pressure center is near 32N41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net