[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
13N. Convective precipitation: Scattered strong within 30 nm on
either side of 17N38W 17N42W 16N46W 14N47W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 06N to 20N between 34W and 50W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for
additional development It is likely that a tropical depression
may form this weekend or early next week while this disturbance
moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest
in the central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days.
The chance of formation is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from the Windward
Passage southward to the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. No
significant deep convective precipitation.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave cuts across the northwestern
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond southwestern Guatemala.
Convective precipitation: remnant rainshowers and thunder from
21N southward between the Yucatan Peninsula and 92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 15N30W, to the 1010 mb low
pressurecenter that is at the southern end of the 44W/45W
tropical wave. Convective precipitation: Scattered to numerous
strong from 08N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 17W,
and from 10N to 13N between 20W and 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the middle
Texas Gulf coast/in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 90W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from the westernmost part of the Florida
Panhandle, into the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico
near 20N97W.

A surface trough is hugging the coast of western Florida. A 1012
mb low pressure center is in the Straits of Florida near 24N81W.
A surface trough extends from Lake Okeechobee, to the 1012 mb
low center, to northwestern Cuba. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 23N to 26N between 80W and 84w. Upper
level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development, while this system moves westward 5 to 10 mph into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Squalls and gusty winds are possible in parts of the Florida
Keys on Saturday.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Edinburg. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR/no
ceilings. Florida: light rain in Marathon in the Florida Keys.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 17N to 22N. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is in the Mona Passage. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 72W
eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 19N to 24N between 60W and 70W. This
precipitation pattern is not showing any signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward about 15 mph. The chance of formation is low.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 72W westward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...none.

The monsoon trough is along 09N77W, beyond the border of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate
from 13N southward from 74W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level N wind flow covers the western half of Hispaniola.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving around the Mona
Passage cyclonic circulatio center.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings; scattered cumulonimbus clouds. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santo Domingo/Punta Cana/La Romana: VFR/no ceilings.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB: the current
Mona Passage cyclonic circulation center is forecast to spread
cyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola, as the cyclonic center
moves westward during day one. The same cyclonic circulation
center will remain near Hispaniola during day two, spreading
more cyclonic wind flow across the area. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that cyclonic wind will cover Hispaniola during
day one, with a trough. More cyclonic wind flow is forecast for
Hispaniola during day two. An inverted trough will remain in the
area of Hispaniola for day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
MB shows that SE wind flow will be moving across the area, for
the first 36 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. NE wind flow
will span Hispaniola for the last 12 hours of the time period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W to 28N75W. A surface
trough is along 31N71W 28N76W, to the Florida east coast near
26N80W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong within 90 nm on either side of 33N68W 28N73W 27N80W.

An upper level trough extends from a 28N64W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N70W, to Jamaica, to 14N83W near the coast of NE
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible
from 27N northward between 62W and 68W.

An upper level trough, whose southernmost point reaches 33N40W,
supports a cold front that 32N40W to 31N42W. A surface trough
extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 30N50W,
to 31N44W. A second surface trough extends from the 30N50W low
pressure center to 27N52W and 26N55W. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 28N to 30N between 44W and 50W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 28N to 33N between 40W
and 54W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of
28N50W 25N54W 24N60W.

An Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through 32N37W to
25N40W to 14N46W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 30N between 30W and 36W.
Isolated moderate from 23N to 24N between 40W and 42W.

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is about 460 nm to the north of the Canary Islands, to
14N20W, in the coastal waters of Senegal. Cyclonic wind flow
covers the area from 14N northward from 25W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 24N
northward from 33W eastward. A 1025 mb high pressure center is
near 33N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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