[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
558 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
17N with axis near 37W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is a 1010 mb center of low pressure associated with
the wave centered near 11N37W, which is forecast to move WNW to
near 13N41W within the next 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
mainly favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear and abundant
moisture from the surface to 850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft support
scattered showers and tstms from 06N to 17N between 31W and 43W.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the
next several days, and a tropical depression could form while this
system moves WNW into the central Atlantic by early next week.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean waters extending from
11N to 19N with axis near 69W, moving W at 15 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable deep
layer wind shear and water vapor imagery continue to show strong
dry air subsidence, which hinder shower activity at the time.

A tropical wave is entering the Yucatan Peninsula. The wave
extends from 15N to 24N with axis near 87W, moving W at 15 kt
within the last 24 hours. Abundant moisture in the wave
environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence at the
middle levels support isolated showers within 90 nm either side of
its axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N31W to 08N42W. The ITCZ begins near
08N43W and continues to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave along 37W, scattered moderate convection is
observed south of the Monsoon Trough from 06N to 12N E of 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge across the Atlantic extends WSW across the
Florida Peninsula and covers the Gulf waters, thus providing ESE
gentle flow. The exception to this is the Bay of Campeche where
winds are from the NE due to a tropical wave that is expected to
move across the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Mainly
unfavorable deep layer wind shear and strong dry air subsidence
across the entire basin continue to favor fair weather. The
tropical wave will move to the Bay of Campeche Friday night
through Saturday with possible showers. Little changes expected
elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave
that is moving across the far NW Caribbean waters generating
scattered to isolated showers over central and eastern Cuba and
adjacent waters N of 15N. A second tropical wave is just S of
Dominican Republic. However, no shower activity is associated
with it. Please refer to the tropical waves section for details.
In the SW basin, scattered to isolated showers are S of 12N being
supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Fair weather and
moderate trades dominate elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to
the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. A surface trough will
move WNW across the NE Caribbean this evening generating showers
across Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Shower activity associated
with this trough will impact Hispaniola Saturday through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather conditions prevail across the Island supported by
both unfavorable deep layer wind shear and strong dry air
subsidence from aloft. A surface trough moving WNW around the SW periphery
of the Atlantic surface ridge will move over the Island Saturday
through Sunday. Showers are expected during the weekend associated
with this area of low pressure.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an elongated upper low over the NW Atlantic and
a broad upper anticyclone centered over the Straits of Florida support
scattered to isolated heavy showers across the central Bahamas
and the Great Bahama Bank. That shower activity is also associated
with a surface trough that extends from 25N78W to 21N79W.
Scattered heavy showers are from 25N to 30N between 66W and 75W. Lastly,
a surface trough in the deep tropics extending from 21N58W to
16N60W supports scattered showers and tstms from 17N to 20N
between 54W and 63W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
broad surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered N of
forecast waters near 35N42W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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