[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 19N
with axis near 28W, moving at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind shear
and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA
LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 24W
and 35W. Significant development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a
little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave is entering the far E Caribbean waters. The wave
extends from 08N to 21N with axis near 60W. The wave is in a
region of mainly favorable deep layer wind shear. However, water
vapor imagery indicate strong dry air subsidence in that region,
which is hindering shower activity at the time.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N to
21N with axis near 82W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Except for the far NW Caribbean, abundant moisture in the
wave environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence
aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 73W
and 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N16W and continues along 11N28W to 07N45W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave along 28W,
scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N E of 17W and from
06N to 09N between 35W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored over the SE CONUS extends SSW
across the basin and provides ESE gentle to moderate wind flow. Water
Vapor imagery continue to show strong dry air subsidence across
the entire basin, which favors fair weather. A tropical wave
currently over W Caribbean waters will move across the Yucatan
Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche Friday. Some showers
and tstms associated with the wave are expected in the SW basin
the next two days. Little changes expected elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave
that is moving across the western Caribbean generating scattered
showers and tstms over central and eastern Cuba and adjacent
waters, including the Windward Passage. Please refer to the
tropical waves section for details. The second area with active
weather is the SW basin where the tropical wave, low pressure
over NW Colombia and the presence of the monsoon trough support
scattered to isolated heavy showers and tstms within 90 nm off the
coasts from Nicaragua through Colombia. Fair weather and moderate
trades dominate elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the
Yucatan Peninsula today. A new tropical wave will move to the E
Caribbean basin this morning, however little shower activity is
anticipated with it.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave, currently moving across the W Caribbean Sea
support scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage and
isolated showers over Haiti. This shower activity will cease
after sunrise today as the wave continues to move W toward the
Yucatan Peninsula. Fair weather is then expected to continue
across the Island through early Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and
a broad upper anticyclone centered N of Hispaniola support
isolated showers across the northern and central Bahamas and the
Great Bahama Bank. A surface trough extends from 30N69W to 29N71W
supporting showers N of 26N between 67W and 74W. Farther east, a
surface trough extends from 30N62W to 28N64W with no convection
over forecast waters. Lastly, a 1012 mb low in the deep tropics
near 15N54W supports heavy showers and tstms from 15N to 19N
between 53W and 57W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a
broad but weak surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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